Leicester vs Brighton

Mark O’Haire Tips for Premier League Fixtures this weekend

Having picked out two winners from last weekend’s matches, the football betting analyst is back with three more value bets for oddschecker’s Acca Scout.

Karou Mitoma Over 1.5 Shots (4/5 Unibet)

Brighton are the Premier League’s great entertainers since Roberto De Zerbi took charge at The Amex. The Seagulls’ exceptional 3-0 success over Liverpool last weekend was almost flawless and the perfect embodiment of Albion’s progress under Italian; slick interchanging, high pressing, overlapping runs, craft, guile and quality finishing in the final-third.

Brighton have now scored 1.94 goals per-game in the Premier League this season – their best-ever return at this stage across ANY league since 1965. And having thrashed Saturday’s hosts Leicester 5-2 in the reverse fixture back in September, there’s real reason to believe the south coast club can repeat the feat at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.

Leicester have posted W0-D1-L9 against the current top-half and have returned from the World Cup break with four successive losses, culminating in last weekend’s meek derby defeat at Nottingham Forest with head coach Brendan Rodgers admitting his side were in a relegation battle. The Foxes sit just two points above the drop-zone.

Rodgers outfit have conceded a minimum of 14 shots in 47% of their overall Premier League outings this season (an average of 13.47 per-game), and free-flowing Brighton have fired in at least 16 attempts in six of their most recent 10 tussles, suggesting the visitors should have some joy in carving out chances, and one player in particular stands out in the market.

Since breaking into the starting side for the Seagulls, Mitoma has taken 13 shots in his five league starts for the club from the left wing (averaging 2.60 shots per-game). The Japanese ace landing the Over 1.5 Shots bounty in four of those five fixtures and the 25-year-old is an attractive 4/5 (1.80) with Unibet to follow suit on Saturday at the KP.

Leeds vs Brentford

Bryan Mbeumo Over 0.5 Shots on-Target (1.78 Unibet)

I’m expecting entertainment at Elland Road when Leeds face Brentford on Sunday afternoon. Both sides have shown a penchant to play proactive football, yet showed reasonable weaknesses in their rearguard, with the duo each involved in regular high-scoring contests in the Premier League. 

The Bees have surpassed all pre-season expectations to consolidate in the top-half and boss Thomas Frank was quick to remind everyone of Brentford’s overachievements after overseeing last weekend’s 2-0 triumph over Bournemouth – Brentford’s third league victory on the spin, as well as a seventh successive unbeaten game in the Premier League.

Brentford have scored in 15 of 19 EPL encounters, and struck multiple times in five of their nine road trips, and so the Bees will expect to get on the scoresheet in West Yorkshire. Top marksman Ivan Toney is the obvious option in the majority of attacking markets, although his partner in crime, Bryan Mbeumo, has displayed remarkable consistency this term.

The Cameroon international has managed Over 0.5 Shots on-Target in 14 of 19 starts for Brentford already, and a repeat holds plenty of appeal at 31/40 (1.78) quotes with Unibet this weekend. Leeds have earned only three clean sheets across the whole campaign, conceding five or more on-target attempts in 53% of their fixtures (4.89 per-game). 

West Ham vs Everton

Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2+ Offsides (15/2 Sky Bet)

I’m keen to finish on a long shot but there’s still plenty of reason to believe the 15/2 (8.50) from Sky Bet is too big to turn down on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be caught offside at least twice as ailing Everton travel to the London Stadium to take on fellow strugglers West Ham in a massive relegation six-pointer on Saturday.

Calvert-Lewin has been plagued by injuries in 2022/23, but when he has led the line for the Toffees, offsides have been prominent. The 25-year-old has been caught offside 12 times in just 580 minutes of Premier League football thus far – that translates to an offside every 48 minutes, including three last time out against Southampton.

The 15/2 (8.50) gives us an implied probability of 12% on this selection paying-out despite already providing profit in four of Calvert-Lewin’s seven starts for Everton this season. 

More adventurous punters can snap up huge 25/1 (26.00) quotes on 3+ Offsides, a line that’s landed in three of those seven fixtures.