15:00 Sunday

Both Teams to Score

Goals are seemingly on the agenda here. Southampton scored an average of 1.88 goals per game this season, only three sides in the Championship found the net more frequently. They created plenty of chances as they beat Leeds twice in the regular season. Russell Martin’s side needs to retain that cutting edge here.

Leeds scored slightly less goals with an average of 1.77 per game, the fourth most in the second tier of English football. They were back to their brilliant attacking best as they beat Norwich. Farke’s men had 18 shots and created six big chances. Leeds should carry confidence in to this one as a result.

Over 1.5 Fouls for Junior Firpo

Southampton are forcing an average of 12.19 fouls per game in the Championship this season. Well above the league average of 10.49 and the fifth most in the division.

The Saints’ 2-1 win at Elland Road on the final day of the season was a feisty affair and I’m expecting the same again with the stakes being so high. 

There was a whopping 35 fouls made in that last meeting. That was a busy day for Junior Firpo. The Leeds left-back made five tackles and was constantly involved. He made two fouls and was booked in the 72nd minute for an argument. Let’s hope he is just as involved this time around.

Under 11.5 Match Corners

Southampton matches saw an average of 11.52 corners per game this season. However, there were just seven corners when they travelled to Elland Road at the end of the season. There have been 11 corners or less in the last eight meetings between these sides with an average of 8.75.

Leeds’ league matches saw an average of 10.46 corners, the ninth fewest in the division. This bet won in both legs of their semi-final clash with Norwich. There should be very few corners here with both teams comfortable in possession.

Recent playoff finals have also seen very few corners. The last final to see more than 11 corners in regulation time was QPR’s 1-0 win over Derby in the 2013/14 season. There have been nine corners or less in the nine playoff finals since with an average of 7.55 per game.