Hertha Berlin v Freiburg - Sunday 14:30, BT Sport 1
Hertha looked set for a top-four finish last term but a disastrous finish to the season that saw them lose five of their last seven meant they dropped down to 7th. They’ll hope to get back to form against a Freiburg side that’s returned to the top flight at the first opportunity as they won the 2.Bundesliga by five points on the back of the best attack in the league.
Hertha’s success last season was largely built around a defensive style, which was particularly pronounced at home where they conceded just 15 goals. Indeed, their record when hosting bottom-five teams is W6-D1-L2 in the last couple of seasons with four wins to nil. It’s worth noting they were level at the break in six of these games and indeed eight of their final nine home matches last term as they liked to keep things tight.
Freiburg only won two road games when they were last in the Bundesliga as they lost seven of their trips to top-nine sides and even as they won promotion last term they picked up just one point from their five visits to the rest of the top six. Christian Streich is a relatively conservative coach so we expect a low scoring match and while Freiburg’s attack is better than it was a couple of years ago there is a question mark over Nils Petersen’s fitness following his return from the Olympics. As a result we’re backing Hertha to win to nil here, but since they’ve only led at the break in two of their last 11 at home, we’re also going to back Draw/Hertha Half Time/Full Time.