Football expert Ryan Elliott has picked out two tips for Saturday's game between Wolfsburg and Dortmund.
It’s fair to say Borussia Dortmund made a significant statement of intent on Saturday, as they stream-rolled rivals Schalke to maintain the pressure on Bayern at the top of the Bundesliga.
Lucien Favre’s men certainly picked up from where they left off, with their performance showing no signs of ring-rust whatsoever.
Looking at how Bayern have performed under Hansi Flick, it’s unlikely that Dortmund can afford many (if any) slip-ups for their remaining matches, and this trip to Wolfsburg has the potential to be very awkward.
Moving up into 6th place, Oliver Glasner’s side claimed all three points away at Augsburg—compounding the hosts’ misery after they saw a goal disallowed by VAR prior to the winner—and I have no doubt they’ll succeed in frustrating Dortmund for large periods of this match.
Wolfsburg have the fourth-best defence in the league (conceding just 31 goals in their 26 games, two fewer than Dortmund), and they’ll be hoping their back four hold firm against the inevitable onslaught on Saturday.
However, Wolfsburg are winless in their last nine against Dortmund (losing eight), and the absence of a significant home advantage behind closed doors will play into the visitors’ hands.
Wolfsburg haven’t so much as scored against Dortmund in their last six league encounters, with all six seeing under five goals in total.
Indeed, only three of Wolfsburg’s games this season have seen over four goals scored, while five goals or more have been scored in eight Dortmund games.
I’m confident Dortmund will win this one, but an away win and under 4.5 goals at a generous 13/10 looks the way to go for value.
I also like the look of the second half being the highest scoring half.
65% of Dortmund’s goals have come in the second period this season, as well as 61% of their concessions.
It’s a similar story for Wolfsburg, who have seen 61% of their goals go in after the half-time whistle, with 58% of the goals they’ve conceded also coming during this period.
The extra firepower Dortmund can bring on towards the tail-end of the game will also help with this tip.