Our football expert has one tip for Bayern vs Fortuna Dusseldorf.
Fortuna Dusseldorf are becoming a serious problem down at the bottom. Uwe Rosler has done a brilliant job in galvanising and solidifying the side, and after a crucial win against a hopeless Schalke side on Wednesday, they’re now only one point off guaranteed safety.
Their trip to Bayern, who essentially won themselves another Bundesliga title on Tuesday as they beat Borussia Dortmund, will be seen as a bit of a free hit for Fortuna.
Obviously with matches like these, value is incredibly tough to find. I originally liked the idea of tipping Bayern midfielder Leon Goretzka to score at any time, before realising he was as short as 5/4 in this market, which is a waste of time.
Instead, I’m diving into the handicap market, where I fancy giving Fortuna a +3 handicap at 13/10.
Rosler has only lost one of his 11 games since taking over as Fortuna boss, and this very impressive improvement in solidity should serve them well for the large parts of this game where Bayern will inevitably dominate.
Home advantage for Bayern here is largely irrelevant due to the lack of fans, so don’t expect an empty Allianz Arena to provide any extra boost, and this will ensure the game is a little more competitive than it otherwise would be.
In their brilliant unbeaten run of 14 games (with 13 wins) under Hansi Flick—obviously spanning before and after postponement—Bayern have won six by three goals or more, which is fairly encouraging.
Sides like Union Berlin, Augsburg, Paderborn and Mainz have all prevented Bayern from winning by a larger margin than two goals, and it’s fair to say a Fortuna will be a lot less forthcoming in terms of conceding goals than some of those sides, particularly under Rosler.
Fortuna to be competitive and cover the +3 handicap is my one and only play for this game.