Our football expert has one 2pt pick for Paderborn vs Borussia Dortmund.
Borussia Dortmund’s defeat to Bayern on Tuesday will have left Lucien Favre and his players crushed. Dortmund dominated for large periods of the game, but a combination of Joshua Kimmich magic and Roman Burki flat-footedness saw their dreams of winning this season’s Bundesliga title fade away.
A top four finish isn’t quite in the bag for Dortmund, as they prepare for a potentially tricky trip to a Paderborn side who look set for relegation.
Steffen Baumgart’s men have drawn all three of their games since the league’s resumption, and while they’re proving pretty hard to beat, these draws simply aren’t enough to keep them in the league, and the lack of cutting edge has really cost them.
On Sunday, Paderborn can only do what they do best and try to frustrate Dortmund as much as possible.
Over half of their league defeats this season have come by just a single goal, and they’ll take confidence from two clean sheets in their last three games, as they prepare to undertake an operation to shut this free-scoring Dortmund side out for 90 minutes.
However, for all their grit and determination, I still can’t see anything but an away win on Sunday, although backing Dortmund and under 4.5 goals looks a solid play.
70% and 71% of Paderborn and Dortmund games respectively have seen under 4.5 goals, and considering Dortmund’s morale-smashing defeat on Tuesday, I don’t believe they’ll be as razor-sharp as their pre-Bayern levels.
Dortmund to secure a low-key win with under 4.5 goals in the game is my tip for Sunday’s late kick-off.