Roma (1) v Porto (1) - Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport ESPN
This game is tightly poised after Andre Silva’s second-half penalty ensured the spoils were shared a week ago. Both teams have made winning starts domestically and confidence should be high so this looks the pick of the midweek action.
Roma have a few problems in defence as Thomas Vermaelen serves a suspension and first choice left-back Mario Rui is a long-term absentee. With Antonio Rudiger also definitely out and significant doubts over Kostas Manolas and Leandro Paredes they could find themselves stretched to the limits in defence. Given most of Roma’s problems over the past 12 months have been at the defensive end of things that is a major worry heading into this match and something we can look to profit from.
With Andre Silva starting the season in red-hot form – he’s netted in all three of Porto’s matches and is 5.0 to keep the streak going – the away side will certainly feel they can get at least one vital away goal. Furthermore, Roma have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 home matches in Europe, and they’ll surely have to look to bag a couple themselves if they are going to progress.
History also suggests that ties in this position produce goals. 61% of the 66 Champions League qualifying round second legs since 1999/00 where the first tie had finished 1-1 have seen at least three goals, while 41% had four or more. Both teams to score looks one of the bets of the night, while Over 3.5 Goals is also value in the goals markets at longer odds.