Spurs travel to Cyprus looking to build on their win against Dortmund.
APOEL Nicosia v Spurs – Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport ESPN
Spurs couldn’t have made a better start in this year’s group of death, beating a Dortmund side that have begun well in the Bundesliga. Apoel went down 3-0 at the Bernabeu, but this was only the second occasion where they’ve lost by a margin of three goals or more in Europe since 2015/16 – though aside from facing Real Madrid these were all in the Europa League. They’re W5-D0-L3 at home during that period, though the last time they reached this level they lost two of three winless games hosting PSG, Barca and Ajax. However, with Barca the only side to win by more than one goal we’re happy to side with Apoel +2 on the handicap.
Indeed, whilst Spurs start as heavy favourites in this one, they hold a pretty shoddy W3-D4-L6 away record in Europe under Pochettino. Restricted to facing teams outside the top 50 in Europe according to our rankings, they’re still just W2-D1-L3, drawing at half-time in all but one of these. Given Spurs have already been frustrated during the first half domestically this season against the likes of Newcastle, Burnley, Swansea and Barnsley, we think there’s some real value about the 0-0 half-time score.
In fact, all four of Spurs’ away games in Europe last term were goalless at the break, with three of these seeing fewer than two goals at the final whistle, and they’ve consistently had low scoring encounters on their travels in Europe since 2012/13. 17 of 24 such games (71%) saw Under 2.5 Goals, including 10 of the 12 that came against sides we have ranked outside Europe’s top 50.