Rotherham v Nottingham Forest - Wednesday 19:45
The two leakiest defences in the Championship go head to head in South Yorkshire and there’s value in backing Nottingham Forest to score over 2.5 away team goals at 9/2. The Reds have netted 13 times in six matches this term, boasting an expected goals output of 1.77 per game, and that bodes well against a Rotherham defence that has conceded 14 and gives up 2.15 expected goals.
Combining the respective shot data of both sides, at both ends, produces a supremacy of 0.25 goals in favour of the visitors, a discrepancy that isn’t quite big enough to warrant a bet on the away win at around 6/4. But the 2.92 total goals expectancy is way above the market, so backing Forest goals is the best course of action. The suggested bet should probably be shorter than 4/1.
The Reds have negotiated three tough away games up to this point - Brighton, Brentford and Aston Villa - netting just two goals, both at Villa Park on Sunday, from just three attempts. But 11 goals against weaker opposition at the City Ground - Burton, Wigan and Leeds - suggests they can wreak havoc on the Millers and make a mockery of their desire to play out from the back.
Rotherham might be unbeaten in three home games and scaling the lofty heights of 20th in the fledgling Championship table but their shot ratio of 27.9 per cent is, by some distance, the worst in the division. If the Millers don’t tighten up soon, the law of averages will take over and Alan Stubbs will be shown the door the very moment they hit rock bottom.