Wolves v Derby - Saturday 12:30, Sky Sports 1
Steve McClaren insists Derby will sharpen up their cutting edge in the coming weeks, as a result of hard work on the training ground, but it’s hard to summon up much enthusiasm for this game breaking the mould of other matches involving the Rams. All but one on their 15 matches have finished under 2.5 goals, eight of them under 1.5.
And these aren’t just results. The shot data paints a sorry picture, with Derby’s expected goals columns - both for and against - operating at below 1.0 per game, combining for a total of 1.81 goals. That’s almost unheard of in English football. Wolves, for their part, can also be found below the overall 2.46 average at 2.33, so let’s not shy away on their account.
With both teams under new management, there’s high potential for change and we should be prepared for something unexpected. But it would be remiss to try and predict it when the numbers are screaming at such obvious outcomes. The draw is chalked-up at 23/10, yet the overall supremacy figures are -0.01 and 0.01 respectively and my tissue makes it shorter than 2/1.
In addition, the no goalscorer bet is available at 7/1 when it should arguably be shorter than 5s. Goalless draws are seldom desirable but new managers tend to get away with them in the name of progress. If neither team takes this game by the scruff of the neck, the prospect of a stalemate and a lack of entertainment wouldn’t unduly concern either side.£10 Free Credit and a £500 Deposit Bonus