Leeds v Newcastle - Sunday 13:15, Sky Sports 1

If Newcastle continue to operate at their current run rate of 2.31 points per game, they will finish the season on 106 points. As it stands, that probably sounds about right. But utterly dominant though they are, the Magpies are much more likely to fall short of that target than exceed it and they’ve already been beaten three times this season.

So don’t be afraid of opposing Rafa Benitez’s men, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate another four or five defeats over the remaining 30 matches. The key question is where. The opportunity to turn a season-long profit is there for any value-seeking punter, it’s purely a matter of picking your battles. And Leeds tick the two most important boxes: numbers and guts.

Based on shot data since the beginning of September, the Whites should be no bigger than 13/5 for this clash, and that’s before you consider the potential impact of a fervent 37,000-capacity Elland Road crowd working in their favour. As a club, Leeds United don’t roll over for anyone. As a manager, neither does Garry Monk. Back the home win at 10/3.

The Whites have won seven out of ten since the tide turned for Monk and there’s a growing sensation that something special is brewing. But this will be the acid test. Beat Newcastle in front of a full house and they have to be taken seriously as play-off frontrunners. If you’re looking for a correct score wager, the Leeds 1-0 option is best value at 11/1.

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Leeds to win - 1pt @ 10/3
Leeds 1-0 correct score - 1pt @ 11/1