Accrington v Mansfield - Tuesday 19:45

John Coleman has clamped down on the defensive naivety that was plaguing Accrington in the opening weeks, the final straw being the 3-2 home defeat to Morecambe - a game in which they were 2-0 up. Since then, only 20 shots on target have been registered in four league outings (14 of them in Accrington’s favour), while West Ham were held for 96 minutes in the EFL Cup.

The trend has been masked by eight goals in that sample (six of them scored by Accrington), yet their expected total goals figure has plummeted from 2.92 after five matches to just 2.35 now. Those last four matches have been operating at just 1.18 expected goals per game and now they come up against a Mansfield side boring the division to tears.

The Stags are far and away the least entertaining team in the division. Their nine games so far having produced just 15 goals (an average of 1.67 per game), five of which arrived on the opening day while two of the subsequent ten have been penalties. In short, that’s eight goals from open play in the last eight matches.

Therefore, a bet on under 1.5 goals at 23/10 should be pretty self-explanatory and the 17/2 availavle on no goalscorer is also worth pursuing. Mansfield’s last four games have finished 0-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1 with just 17 shots on target.

Under 1.5 goals - 1pt @ 23/10
No goalscorer - 1pt @ 17/2