Carlisle v Crawley - Saturday 15:00
Carlisle stretched their club-record unbeaten start to 14 matches at Stevenage last weekend and it’s only natural the desire to preserve that run will sometimes override any urge to take risks in putting your next opponent under the cosh. The Cumbrians will know they have the beating of Crawley, so they not be in any rush to pile bodies forward in pursuit of maximum points.
The Sussex minnows might be the third-weakest team in the division according to the shot data but their position in the table - ninth - is not a complete accident. On ten occasions when they’ve scored the first goal - impressive in itself for a team that only has 42 per cent of the chances - they’ve been beaten just once, going on win seven.
So Keith Curle will be aware that an excruciating afternoon awaits if a momentary lapse in concentration allows the Red Devils to get their noses in front and there’s value in backing the 0-0 half time score at 5/2. Carlisle’s seven home matches to date have produced just three first-half goals. Crawley matches overall have delivered the third-fewest goals inside 45.
Beyond that, a bet on under 1.5 goals over the full 90 minutes is also advised. The market has the total goals line set at around 2.83, virtually half a goal more than my ratings. By standard conversion, I make the under 1.5 goals bet around 9/4 but you can get a whopping 18/5 with Bet Victor.£10 Free Credit and a £500 Deposit Bonus