Six of Leicester’s last nine victories have been by a single goal and another could be on the cards.
Leicester v Burnley - Saturday 15:00
Leicester only lost three games during their title winning campaign but haven’t made the greatest start to the season having lost two of their opening four matches. Following their capitulation at Anfield, they did manage to win at Brugge in the Champions League and will be hoping to use that performance to kick start their season.
Leicester were comprehensively outplayed by Jurgen Klopp’s side and will need to get back to the basics of their success in order to have a decent season. It is understandable that Claudio Ranieri would want his team to adapt to the tag of favourites by playing more on the front foot and less on the counter when playing the smaller sides, but against better teams like Liverpool he will have to quickly rethink his strategy. However, at home to Burnley his team are deservedly clear favourites.
Burnley didn’t look after the ball well enough against Hull, with too many long punts forward for Andre Gray to helplessly chase. They will consider themselves unlucky to have conceded in the fifth minute of stoppage time against Hull, but in truth Hull had more possession whilst Burnley only had two shots on target all game. Their survival prospects rest on defensive solidarity rather than attacking prowess, and so we can expect the majority of their games to be tight affairs.
Indeed, with six of Leicester’s last nine victories won by a margin of a single goal and five of these games by an exact score of 1-0, we’re backing Leicester to win by one goal at 3.5.