Sweden v Netherlands - Tuesday 19:45, ITV 4
Sweden had a dire Euros campaign as they managed just one goal, and even that was an own goal, with Zlatan so unimpressed that he decided to retire from international football. Indeed, the Swedes may as well have not bothered to qualify for the Euros, as the Netherlands did as they missed out to the Czech Republic, Iceland and Turkey in qualification. They’ve managed some better results under Danny Blind in recent times as they won friendlies in England and Poland, but a 2-1 home defeat against Greece last Thursday suggests that all is still not well with the Dutch.
Sweden have managed only one win in their last seven, but they’ve won six of their last nine at home. The Swedes are 37th in our rankings, still below the Netherlands despite their recent struggles, and the Scandinavians have a W4-D1-L5 record when hosting sides above them since 2011, including a 3-2 win over the Netherlands themselves. It’s also worth noting that there’s a strong goals trend in these games, with both teams netting in eight of the 10, eight seeing more than two goals, and six more than three.
Indeed, both teams have netted in eight of the Dutch’s last nine and with that in mind both teams to score ‘Yes’ looks a great bet in this one at odds-against. Whilst, they’ve struggled at home, Netherlands have won their last five on the road, with both teams netting in four of these.
Indeed, The Oranje have won seven of their 12 trips to sides ranked below them but in the top-50 since 2012, and as a result they look like value here, so we’re backing Netherlands to win and both teams to score, with Over 3.5 Goals also worth consideration.