Can Treve win a third Arc? Tom Stanley brings you his best bets for Longchamp.
There’s not a sole on the planet that would begrudge Treve an historic 3rd Arc this afternoon and, for all history is against her, everything on the day is in her favour. Pacemaker drawn low, she comes out of 8 and should be able to get a nice bit of cover under a jockey that rides her so well. She has to give weight to a couple of Derby winners but she is good enough not just to win this but to overcome any sort of trouble too, the hallmark of a superstar. The toe she showed last month and has shown throughout her career is what makes her so good and I’d have no fears about the ground. As far as a horse that looks overpriced goes, Erupt seems to have been forgotten this afternoon at a massive price. Unbeaten prior to his run here last time when his trainer admits he wasn’t fully wound up, he clearly didn’t give his running and he’ll fare better this afternoon. Sent off favourite that day after a 2 month break, the ground was the easiest he’d encountered and I’m not finding it a difficult run to forgive. He had the beating of the Derby 4th prior to that and for me Storm The Stars, who didn’t stay in the Leger after a long season but can still be considered the best horse in the race, adds massive substance to the form. He’s well worth an each way play given better ground will help today and he too is well drawn.
Elsewhere on the card, Ballydoyle looks a worthy favourite in the Marcel Boussac. She was beaten by Minding in the Moyglare having been out in front all the way in a race where they got going pretty early. I fancy Ryan Moore will be happy to let something else go forward this afternoon. Her form is strong with the likes of Nemoralia and Turret Rocks going on to win at the Leger meeting and, for all Pascal Barry’s filly is unbeaten and has been very impressive in 2 starts, her form doesn't yet stack up to that of the Coolmore filly. Better ground may well help too. The Jean-Luc Lagardere looks a race to concentrate on Johannes Vermeer and Herald The Dawn. I was impressed by the former’s guts last time but am not sure he oozed class. He certainly looks a Derby candidate and should improve for further. Herald The Dawn was well held by Air Force Blue last time in the National Stakes but he was keen early on ground that really didn’t play to his strengths. He has a proper top of the ground action and I fancy this brother of Dawn Approach could have too much toe today.
The Prix De L’Abbaye looks very open but I’m struggling to commit to anything. Muthmir could be the one given he gets his ground and the likely pace he needs to aim at from a handy draw. However, Goldream had the beating of him at Ascot and drying ground will help him too. Add to the mix last year’s winner and it’s difficult to have a strong opinion about anything. I do like a 3 year old in the Prix De L’Opera however. Queen’s Jewel was sent off favourite for the French Oaks but pulled early and raced wide enough and far enough back given the winner made all. She’s been given a break since and is back over the course and distance where she was last successful. If she’s back to as good as they though she was prior to that Oaks disappointment then she could be massively underestimated here in a field not lacking pace but lacking an out and out star. Stable companion We Are may be the biggest danger and is worth a saver back on suitable ground.