Oil Burner has won Ayr's marathon chase (3.40) in the past and his low weight will be a big advantage again this afternoon. He blew up on his reappearance at Wetherby but I believe he will come on for that run.
Oil Burner - 1pt @ 8.0
It is a case of that specialist subject 'stating the bleedin obvious,' but Conquer Gold (12.55, Ayr) comes out so far clear on my figures that even at around 4/6 he looks to be value. The Nicky Richards/Brian Harding combination is very profitable, with Harding doing particularly well at Ayr. As mentioned already in this column, the sire Gold Well is one of my favourites, especially in testing conditions. He looks a banker.
Conquer Gold - 4pts @ 1.73Lost -4pts
Stuart Coltherd has not been amongst the winners recently but the trainer has come very close with most runners that have been single figure odds and his runners I believe are in good form. Quick Decisson (3.05, Ayr) is getting better on this his second spell over fences and I believe he can reverse his latest defeat by the unreliable Willie Hall.
Quick Decisson - 1pt @ 4.5
David Evans is a difficult man to pin down statistically but there is no doubt by any measure that his horses are in good form at present. Best New Show (2.50, Southwell) is by Clodvil, a sire who has done very well at Southwell with limited numbers of runners, so it is very possible that Best New Show could well improve on his Fibresand debut.
Best New Show - 2pts @ 2.9Lost -2pts
Keith Dalgleish is also in good form and Incurs Four Faults is overpriced in the 1.45. Joe Fanning has a good record for the trainer who is an expert in this grade of handicap. Recent efforts have been good enough to suggest a win is due and his running last time can be ignored as he was hampered at the start.
Incurs Four Faults - 1pt e/w @ 9.0Lost -1pts
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