There’s a few odds-on pokes today and I’m not wanting to take any on. Rayvin Black could be a danger at Haydock with an easy lead but The New One will still likely have too much toe for him. I fancy The Govaness is the main threat to Vroum Vroum Mag but the latter could be a monster and make 1/2 look generous. Of the 3 shorties, Un De Sceaux is probably the best value at around 4/7. He fell on his reappearance last year before winning everything put before him and he’s perhaps just that little bit fresher one reappearance. That will hopefully have been taken out of him now and he’ll very likely take this before going on to win the Queen Mother.
Bet of the day is Sugar Baron at Ascot on his 2nd start this term. He looked a proper horse when beating Ar Mad at Newbury, who is now a 160 odd rated chaser, and that came on heavy ground. For all he’s a Presenting, he didn’t look so happy at Kempton on better ground next time and a return to a softer surface may be just what he wants. He shaped well last time when Baron Alco made all and the pace on here could well set this up for a closer. He’s a course winner and a massive price on known form. I also want to chance Simply A Legend at a similar price. He’s improved with each start this term and his trainer mentioned yesterday that he thinks there’s more to come. He too chased home Baron Alco, finishing best of those from in behind at Kempton, and this race should place more emphasis on stamina.
Sugar Baron - 1pt @ 10/1
Simply A Legend - 1pt @ 16/1
Over at Haydock, Algernon Pazham makes his 4th start of the season in the Peter Marsh. Things have hardly gone to plan since a respectable 2nd on reappearance and, for all his hike was probably a little harsh on the face of it, he still looks feasibly treated. A first go over the National fences didn’t seem to suit next time and he came down too early to say what would have happened at Warwick. He’s been placed on each of 3 starts here and won or been placed 7 out of 8 times with today’s jockey in the plate. It’s far too soon to write him off at a decent price.
Algernon Pazham - 1pt @ 12/1
Top and bottom weight catch the eye in the last at Ascot and the price about Tara Road, who is 1lb out of the weights, is too big to ignore. On recent form he’s not really backable but he’s a well treated horse and the stable are in much better nick than when we last saw him. He won over this trip and on testing ground at Ffos Las before being sent off favourite for a relatively quick reappearance at Newbury. Royal Regatta won that day and reopposes here but is 26lb worse off for 10 lengths and it might be the time to catch Tara Road who has won here before.
Tara Road - 1pt @ 12/1