Carntop shaped like much the best horse in the Lingfield Derby Trial behind Humphrey Bogart and the pair look the ones to concentrate on again in the King Edward VII Stakes (3.05). This track should suit Carntop better than Lingfield and I don’t think the ground is going to unduly influence his performance. Given his ownership, it’s likely he’s been targeted at this race.
I don’t really see any reason why Quiet Reflection shouldn’t win again and she’s a solid favourite in the Commonwealth Cup (3.40). The ground can’t be soft enough for her and I confidently expect her to come out on top again. If there is a danger to her then it could be La Rioja who can make a large step forward from her seasonal debut. I’ve a feeling that her yard are about to turn a corner.
The Coronation Stakes looks very tricky but today could just be the day for Nathra (4.20) who to my eye has run better in two Guineas than looked at first glance. I thought she was trapped away from the action at Newmarket and was too far back in France. The only problem today is that she’s drawn in stall 13 which is a tough spot on the Mile Round course. She’s a big price though and I can’t get it out of my head that at the beginning of the season John Gosden told me that for all she had been beaten by Minding in the Fillies Mile, he thought Nathra was still as good as his four previous winners of that race. As such, she perhaps warrants more respect than she’s getting.
Kinema looks a solid option in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (5.00). Trip, ground and track should all be ideal and he’s relatively lightly-raced for a 5yo who is bred to improve.
The finale (5.35) can go to Ireland and Ebediyin who has a really strong stout pedigree and he’s from a family that have done very well at this meeting, including in this race. Although he’s got to improve a little bit, that comment applies to most of these runners.