Hanbury Racing brings you his weekly each-way double for Saturday's racing from Haydock & Salisbury both currently priced at 33/1.
When a horse leaves Willie Mullins’s yard the market seems to discard it. But there are plenty of examples where horses carry on their careers with immediate success and win at big prices.
I’m hoping Runrized falls in this bracket.
This class 4 (0-80) handicap is a weak event, with the favourite, Byron Hill, looking vulnerable coming off a 246-day break. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market flipped by the off and made either Songo or Duke of Verona favourite. At least these two won a race two runs ago.
For me, they are all just too short in the market to get excited about, whereas Runrized sits at a best-priced 33/1 with Bet365 and has a real chance of winning or grabbing a place.
The son of Derby hero Authorized won in France and in his three runs ran just below Listed level, postmarking a high of 85, before moving onto Willie Mullins.
He ran eight times over hurdles, including once on the flat, and was rather an in-and-out performer.
Runrized won a maiden hurdle postmarking 122 when wearing a tongue tie and it seems his breathing is an ongoing serious issue as whenever the tongue tie was removed, he struggled.
His one run on the flat fell foul to the breathing problem and only ran to 65 (when rated 85).
Since his recent move to the UK, Runrized has just had a recent pipe opener after 10 months off and was pulled up over 2m 4F hurdles on soft ground. On the face of it, that’s a poor run, but he would have needed it, plus the tongue tie was removed and he has no form over the 2m 4F trip.
It’s an excusable run but will have done him the world of good for his fitness and conditioning.
Interestingly, Mullins ran him over 2m 4F twice at the start of a season, both runs resulted in him being pulled up (neither with a tongue tie), but then on his next start, he reverted back to 2 miles, applied the tongue tie and won impressively.
After the race, Mullins cited the better ground and tongue tie as the reasons for improvement, and I think today could see the same result.
The new trainer Camilla Poulton gets winners on the flat and she is giving Runrized every chance by dropping him to an ideal 1m 6F, on good ground, and applying the all-important tongue tie that was missing from his stable debut.
Running off a mark of 78 gives him every chance considering he has already achieved 85, and still looks unexposed with only five runs on the flat.
He looks like a cracking bet play at 66/1, and I recommend 1 point each way.
Kelly Dino makes a return to action here after a 720-day absence and normally I would run a mile before backing one after such a long lay-off, but I am willing to make an exception this time.
It’s rare for a horse to win off lengthy absences, but it does happen, and in Kelly Dino, she has previous as the mare won off an absence of 835 days back in 2018!
Kellys Dino is clearly fragile, but also a talented mare as she sits on a mark of 100, and has earnt it, with eight wins including a Class 2 Newmarket handicap off 106, and as importantly a 17 runner £62k handicap over today’s course and distance.
K Burke has always trained Kellys Dino, so knows her well, and I would like to think he will have her spot on today, as he knows she is mustard when fresh.
At first glance, this is a competitive (0-105) handicap, but with Royal Ascot just a few weeks away, many will be using this as a prep run for a tilt a win at that prestigious meeting, whereas Kellys Dino will in all likelihood be primed for today.
She reached a peak handicap rating of 110, so today’s reduced mark of 100 looks more than manageable.
The 33/1 available and 4 places makes her a worthwhile punt and I recommend 1 point each way.