That escalated quickly. Not many would have successfully predicted the outcomes of both women's semi-finals, and no-one would have forecast Marin Cilic winning just three games against Novak Djokovic.

Let's start with the women and you'd have got huge odds on there being an all-Italian final. Flavia Pennetta played some inspired stuff in her semi-final although Simona Halep was far below her best and there has to be a big question mark over the Romanian mentally in Grand Slams. As for Roberta Vinci, tactically she got it right against Serena Williams but she played out of her skin to come back from a set and a break down as the world number one's level dropped.

There is an obvious danger of Vinci failing to come close to yesterday's heroics after such a huge physical and mental effort. Pennetta should be the fresher of the two, she is the better player, and odds-against about her winning in straight sets is fair.

Roger Federer is still to drop a set in the tournament and he was far too good for Stan Wawrinka. He says he is playing perhaps his best tennis at present, some feat for a 34-year-old, and I think he has a great chance. He is serving superbly with Wawrinka full of admiration for his compatriot's aggression, and he beat Djokovic in straight sets in Cincinnati last month.

The world number one was clinical in his semi but he has always done well against Cilic and the Croat served poorly (making just 47% of first serves compared to 58% in his previous two rounds) and made 37 unforced errors in just 21 games. The Swiss won't give him such an easy ride.

There is a chance that Djokovic will run down and fire back everything Federer throws at him and, given my recent luck, that may well happen. But no guts, no glory and we'll go for Federer on the handicap and to win in straight sets.

Flavia Pennetta to beat Roberta Vinci in straight sets - 1pt @ 11/10Won 1.1pts
Roger Federer +1.5 games v Novak Djokovic - 2pts @ 10/11Lost 2pts
Federer to beat Djokovic in straight sets - 1pt @ 11/2Lost 1pt