Sofa bet pundit Daniel Gould thinks the girl group could be in trouble this weekend.
Last week's elimination process went as the market expected on the night - Freddy Parker lost out to Saara Aalto in the singoff, the flash vote having saved Ryan Lawrie just minutes earlier. I'm not sure how long the show will continue with the brief Sunday vote to rescue one of the bottom three. As a consequence we know an extra act in these early weeks that are dead wood in terms of their polling.
The singers in last Sunday's singoff had both been in the bottom three the week before. Unlike them, this weekend Ryan Lawrie could benefit from a "sympathy bounce", whereby an act previously in the danger zone manages to steer clear of it next time due to a motivated fanbase. As a cute lad from Scotland, there are two reasons for certain sections of the voting public to get behind him, especially if there's another flash vote to save on Sunday night. The 5/2 offered on Ryan Lawrie next to go doesn't appeal in these circumstances.
As a female singer from Finland, Saara Aalto doesn't have any such base. This and her poor treatment are why she is polling near the bottom of the vote. The show could try to engineer as much sympathy behind her as possible this coming weekend, based on her mentor Sharon Osborne's continued inability to remember her name. Problem is, I'm not sure they will; and even if they did, it may still not be enough. She seems by far the most likely to be eliminated next weekend, but at odds-on already, the market reflects this.
Relley C and Four of Diamonds are next in elimination lists. On the evidence of last Saturday, the show is still doing its best for Relley. We were introduced to her father, and there were further appeals for Birmingham to get behind their local lass. I'd have to see any evidence of this positivity being toned down in the show itself, before considering her being eliminated this week.
Last Saturday, Four of Diamonds didn't get the golden comeback treatment afforded previous surprise returnees like Amelia Lily and Monica Michael. Instead they got cold lighting and a low-budget production. Not allowing any of the girlband's vocals to shine individually added to the overall sense of a karaoke performance. It wasn't promising for their long-term chances in the competition.
They're a best-priced 10/1 for elimination. My guess is that the girlband would more likely be saved in a singoff against Saara, but even if that occurs, you can still get 3/1 Four of Diamonds being in next Sunday's bottom two with Ladbrokes at the time of going to press, and that's this week's recommended bet.
In the outright market, Matt Terry cemented his favouritism, and is now Evens at best. His only close rivals are Five After Midnight at 3/1. Ladbrokes are now offering a Win Without Matt Terry market that has the boyband at Evens and 6/1 bar. One other market worth looking at is the Top Girl one, which is currently very tight between the three remaining acts in this category - Emily Middlemas, Gifty Louise and Sam Lavery.