The big mover in the X Factor outright market has been our pre-lives tip Emily Middlemas, down to 7/2 second favourite after her haunting rendition of 'Creep' last Saturday. She has flip-flopped in the market with boyband 5 After Midnight, who failed to shine for the second week running, and are now a best-priced 10/1.

Matt Terry remains the odds-on favourite in what looks increasingly like a two-horse race with Emily. Novelty act Honey G, still at 16/1, remains the joker in the pack. Producers look like they are still doing everything in their power to make her the third finalist. We can expect another massive production for her this coming weekend.

One of the ways to get her there is to keep plenty of dead wood in the competition. That's certainly the case at the moment with three acts who have faced the danger zone on at least two occasions - Four of Diamonds, Ryan Lawrie and Saara Aalto. They dominate the elimination market at 15/8, 5/2 and 5/2 respectively. If producers don't allow these acts to impress again this week, it's a way to keep Honey G out of the scrap at the bottom, keeping up the idea she could go all the way.

That makes the search for value in this week's elimination market difficult. As does the knowledge that at some point producers will drop the Sunday flash vote to save one of the bottom three. For the last three weeks, it has saved Ryan Lawrie. As a cute boy from Scotland, there are two reasons why certain parts of the voting public are motivated to help him at this point. If the flash vote stays, that's great for Ryan. If it doesn't, that bodes ill for his fortunes. Such news will only likely be confirmed at the weekend.

In the circumstances, FOUR OF DIAMONDS look the most disposable among the dead wood. They've not been allowed to shine at all since returning to the show in week 2. On the other hand, Saara has been allowed to put up a few great performances thanks to some big productions. She's now got an established narrative as someone who has won round the public.

It's not a week to get heavily involved before the Saturday show, but having won a bit on the girlband being in the singoff two weeks ago, it's time to chance that the cards will fall again, this time without being saved. Thus, Four of Diamonds are this week's suggested elimination bet.

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Four of Diamonds Next Elimination - 2pts @ 7/4