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MLB Futures Odds: Oddsmakers Hammering The Over On Home Runs

Analyzing the over/under lines set for the power hitters in the MLB
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MLB Futures Odds: Oddsmakers Hammering The Over On Home Runs

MLB has experienced a home run bonanza the last few years. Every year the league seems to set a new home run record. So, it makes sense that oddsmakers are hammering the over for the most prominent power hitters in MLB.

However, a new ball could change all of that. MLB has already announced that a new ball will be used for the 2021 season. If they have deadened the ball, home runs numbers could be down across the league.

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is one of the premier power hitters in MLB. The New York Yankees outfielder set the rookie home run record with 52 home runs in 2017, since passed by Pete Alonso. However, Judge hasn’t hit 30 home runs since.

It’s not for a lack of power, as Judge gas been on pace to top 30 home runs in every season since. His issue has been injuries. Judge hasn’t played in 120 games since 2017. In fact, he’s played in fewer games every year since. In 2020, Judge played in just 28 of the 60 regular-season games.

Despite Judge’s lack of health, oddsmakers are betting on his talent. He’s currently given -124 odds to top 34.5 home runs.

2021 Aaron Judge Home Run Total

Home Run TotalOdds
Over 34.5-124 
Under 34.5+100 

View the betting market here. 

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Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the most exciting young players in MLB. Home Run power has become a major part of his game. Over 84 games in his rookie year, he hit 22 home runs and followed that up by hitting 17 in 59 games in 2020.

Given his strong pace numbers, oddsmakers are giving Tatis the benefit of the doubt. They set his over/under at 35.5 home runs, and the over is slightly favored at -118.

Tatis has never hit even 25 home runs in a season though. So while the pace numbers are phenomenal there is a fair amount of risk here.

2021 Fernando Tatis Jr Home Run Total Odds

Home Run TotalOdds
Over 35.5-118 
Under 35.5-106 

View the betting market here. 

Pete Alonso

When Pete Alonso debuted in 2019 he immediately established himself as one of the best power hitters in MLB. The New York Mets’ first baseman set the MLB rookie record for home runs in 2019, and led all of MLB, with 53.

He slumped in 2020, but still managed to hit 16 home runs in 57 games. He was on pace for 46 home runs over the same number of plate appearances as 2019.

Despite Alonso’s power prowess, oddsmakers are unsure if he’ll top 41 home runs. In fact, they give him the same exact odds to hit over and under 41.5 home runs, -112.

2021 Pete Alonso Home Run Total Odds

Home Run TotalOdds
Over 41.5-124 
Under 41.5+100 

View the betting market here.


A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.


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