MLB Odds Update: American League Wild Card Race

With less than a week to go until the MLB playoffs begin, Kyle Newman has an update for you on the American League Wild Card race and each team's odds of reaching the playoffs.
Kyle Newman
Thu, September 30, 11:47 AM EDT

MLB Odds Update: American League Wild Card Race

Yankees and Red Sox Massive Favorites To Claim Wild Card Spots

The AL Wild Card race is as tight as possible. Four teams are within two games of each other, with just four games left for three teams and three games left for one. Oddsmakers feel very confident that the Yankees and Red Sox will hold onto their spots. 

The Yankees are given -650 odds, or an implied 86.7% chance to make the playoffs. This is despite having the most difficult finish to the season of the remaining four teams. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are given -160 odds, or an implied 61.5% chance to make the playoffs. That makes sense, given they finish the year with a game against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. 

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are given +210 odds or an implied 32.3% chance of overcoming their one-game deficit and making the playoffs. The Mariners are given even worse odds at +250, or an implied 28.6% chance, despite being just 0.5 games back. 

It’s interesting to see the Yankees given such great odds. It makes sense logically. They just need to win two of their final four games to clinch at least a tie. However, they do play the Blue Jays and the Rays. Meanwhile, outside of the Blue Jays one game against the Yankees, the other three teams competing are playing their games against teams under .500. So, this race feels much more wide open than the odds give it credit for. 

Odds To Make Playoffs

Team Odds Implied Chance
Yankees -650 86.7%
Red Sox -160 61.5%
Blue Jays +210 32.3%
Mariners +250 28.6%

Click Here For All Other MLB Odds

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