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NL MVP Odds & Prediction: Bryce Harper vs Juan Soto

Who wins the NL MVP? MLB Expert, Matt O'Leary has it between Juan Soto and Bryce Harper this year.
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NL MVP Odds & Prediction: Bryce Harper vs Juan Soto

Ironically, the National League MVP will likely come down to the former Washington National or the guy who replaced him. Bryce Harper, as everyone is well aware, spent the first seven years of his career in Washington. He signed a mega-deal with the Philadelphia Phillies and in his third year there in 2021, completely tore it up.

Juan Soto, who is one of the best young players in baseball at just 22 years old also has a compelling case for the award. But which one of these guys ends up getting the award? Let’s take a closer look.

Bryce Harper

Right now Bryce Harper is the front runner for the award. He led the league in doubles, slugging, OPS, and OPS+ this season. With a slash line of .309/.429/.615 with 35 HR and 84 RBI it was truly an impressive season for the phenom.

He was unreal, posting a 5.9 WAR this season which was his highest total since his MVP year back in 2015. Harper was not an All-Star this year but a monster second half got him back in this race. 

In his final 73 games, he hit 20 home runs to go along with a 1.188 OPS. He saved his best for the stretch run but unfortunately, wasn’t able to get the Phillies to the playoffs. They finished second in the division with an 82-80 record. 

Juan Soto

The Nationals sold off a ton of pieces but wisely held on to Soto. This season, Soto led the league with 145 walks, and for the second year in a row he led the league in OBP with a .465 His slash line was impressive coming in at .313/.465/.534 with 29 HR and 95 RBI to go along with it.

Juan Soto was also fifth in the league in WAR with a 7.0 by far the highest total of his young career. Soto finished just two spots behind Harper, who led the MLB with a 170 wRC+, as he finished with a 163 wRC+ of his own.

Similar to Harper, Soto came on strong down the stretch as he finished with an OPS above 1.1 in two of the final three months of the season. Let’s compare the numbers

Stat Comparison

Bryce Harper-203
Juan Soto+193
Fernando Tatis+775

NL MVP Prediction

It’s a really difficult pick, but I give the edge to Juan Soto. He was more valuable in terms of bWAR and they both shared the same fWAR. Harper’s season wasn’t as dominant as his 2015 campaign when he won, and it’s almost more impressive how much Soto carried the Nationals team after they sold literally everyone off. You can’t go wrong with either guy but give me Soto here. 

Juan Soto +193


OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.


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