MLB Lockout: Will the 2022 Season Start on Time? Oddsmakers Give It a 60% Chance

After the most recent discussions between MLB and its Players Association, oddsmakers have flipped in favor of the 2022 MLB season starting on time. We have a breakdown of it all here.

Kyle Newman

Mon, January 24, 2:30 PM EST | 3 min read

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MLB Lockout: Will the 2022 Season Start on Time? Oddsmakers Give It a 60% Chance

In a stunning reversal, oddsmakers believe the 2022 MLB season will start on time!

MLB and the MLBPA have stark differences in how they believe the league should look moving forward. Most notably, the MLBPA wants to make sure no teams have any reason to tank anymore. As a result, they’ve asked for drastic measures to be taken, such as rewarding good teams with extra draft picks, cutting revenue sharing, and a salary floor. The core economic issues at play in this have led to a standoff between the two parties.

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As a result, oddsmakers believed that the 2022 MLB season was doomed to be delayed. They gave -250 odds, or an implied 71.4% chance that the season would be delayed, and +170 odds or a 37% chance the season would start on time. Oddsmakers saw it as unlikely the gap between the two sides could be bridged in just a month or two.

That’s no longer the case though. After MLB got the ball rolling with a proposal last week. The MLBPA is coming back with a counter-proposal today. For whatever reason, oddsmakers are now optimistic that these talks can move quickly enough that the season will start on time. In a stunning reversal, oddsmakers are now given -150 odds, or an implied 60% chance that the season will begin on time. However, a delayed season is still very much in play with oddsmakers giving the possibility of +110 odds, or an implied 47.6% chance of happening.

Of course, precedent says not to get your hopes up. The last time there was a lockout it lasted nearly a full month into the 1995 season, after losing the end of the 1994 season. Neither side wants to be the perceived loser in these negotiations and that leads to hard-fought discussions, often at the expense of fans.

Still, there’s too much money on the line for this to drag on for too much longer, at least that’s what the prevailing thought is. It’s only a matter of time before we see if the two sides can come to an agreement in time for the season to start on time. After all, pitchers and catchers were set to report by February 14th prior to the lockout!