MLB Lockout Odds: Oddsmakers Expect a May Opening Day

With games already canceled, oddsmakers are no longer as optimistic as they once were. They now expect at least one full month of games to be lost due to the CBA negotiations.
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MLB Lockout Odds: Oddsmakers Expect a May Opening Day

With games already canceled, oddsmakers are no longer as optimistic as they once were. They now expect at least one full month of games to be lost due to the CBA negotiations.

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Oddsmakers are giving +550 odds, or an implied 15.4% chance that Opening Day will be in April. Sadly, oddsmakers are giving +500 odds, or an implied 16.7% chance that no games are played this year.

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At the end of the day though, oddsmakers do believe baseball will be played this year. They’re giving +175 odds, or an implied 36.4% chance that Opening Day will take place in May. June is +200, or an implied 33.3% chance. Hopefully, it doesn’t take this long, but oddsmakers are giving +250 odds, or an implied 28.6% chance that Opening Day isn’t until July or later.

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The CBA fight has been nasty. With a deal seemingly closing right before the deadline, fans were disappointed to learn that no deal was struck. However, both sides believe they have to do what they’re doing. Owners want to win another CBA battle and players want a win big enough to make up for past losses. At some point, they’ll have to compromise, but oddsmakers don’t think it’s going to be soon.

Opening Day Month Odds

OddsMonthImplied chance
+175May36.4%
+200June 33.3%
+250July or Later28.6%
+500No Season16.7%
+550April15.4%

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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