MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Finding Value With Joey Gallo
MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Finding Value With Joey Gallo
Last year, surprisingly Salvador Perez found himself at the top of the list for MLB home runs during the regular season. The 31-year-old catcher, who had a previous career-high of 27 home runs, had a major bounce-back season in 2021.
While I don't think he repeats as champion, and neither do the oddsmakers, I do think there are some interesting value plays to look at for who could be the home run leader at the end of the regular season. Here is a look at the MLB home run leader odds for 2022.
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MLB Home Run Leader Odds
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr | +700 |
| Pete Alonso | +1000 |
| Aaron Judge | +1200 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +1400 |
| Matt Olson | +1400 |
| Joey Gallo | +1400 |
| Mike Trout | +1400 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +1500 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr +700 (Bet $100 to win $700)
Last year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had his breakout season as he was tied for the lead league in home runs, OBP, SLG, and OPS. With 48 home runs at age 22 years old, many are projecting him to take another leap forward in his development. Reaching close to 50 home runs again though is likely a tall task.
Baseball Reference is projecting a 31 home run season for Guerrero. While that would be great and most would sign up for that, it's not lead the league in home runs worthy. Plus, this answer is a little too chalk for my taste.
Pete Alonso +1000 (Bet $100 to win $1000)
As a rookie in 2019, Pete Alonso was the lead leader in home runs with 53. He slumped in 2020 but for most of 2021 he looked like his old self finishing with 37 homers. He's projected for 35 but feels like someone who will hang out around 40 home runs. It may be enough to get the job done but there's one guy I like even more than Pete Alonso to lead the league in homers.
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Joey Gallo +1400 (Bet $100 to win $1400)
Yes, give me Joey Gallo. Last year, Gallo finished with 38 homers and after getting moved to the Yankees he hit 13 in 58 games. Joey Gallo will never hit for a high average but he can hit you a ton of homers. Something about a lefty bat in Yankee Stadium for a full season is what excited me about Gallo's value here.
He hit seven home runs at Yankee Stadium in just 28 games last year. The last two full healthy season's he played in Texas he hit 41 and 40 homers in 2018 and 2019. Sure, the old Rangers stadium was a hitters park but it's nothing like the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.