AL East Odds: Are Oddsmakers Too Down on the Rays?
AL East Odds: Are Oddsmakers Too Down on the Rays?
We've finally made it! Major League Baseball returns this week after a lockout in the offseason that was fun for absolutely no one. For a while, it was all anyone could talk about, but now we can focus on the game itself when discussing the state of the MLB.
One division that I would like to keep my eye on this year is the AL East. You could make an outside case for four of the five teams winning the division but I think one of those teams is getting slept on.
Let's take a look at the AL East odds:
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AL East Odds
Team | Odds | Implied Chance |
---|---|---|
Blue Jays | +185 | 35.01% |
Yankees | +250 | 28.57% |
Rays | +330 | 23.26% |
Red Sox | +600 | 14.29 |
Orioles | +20000 | 0.50% |
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Blue Jays +185 (Bet $100 to win $185)
Last year, the American League East saw three playoff teams from the division. Ironically, one of those teams was not the Toronto Blue Jays who are now the AL East favorite at +185. They won 91 games missing the playoffs by just one game.
This offseason, the Blue Jays went in big extending Jose Berrios who they acquired at the deadline last year and then they also added Kevin Gausman after a breakout with the San Francisco Giants.
The Jays did lose Robbie Ray in free agency, as he was the 2021 Cy Young Award winner with a 2.84 ERA and Steven Matz signed with the St. Luis Cardinals as well. Still, this is a team that should be right around 90 wins again if not more.
Yankees +250 (Bet $100 to win $250)
The Yankees have had a little bit of a weird offseason. They retained Antony Rizzo, which was a fine move but outside of that the trade they made with Minnesota is still an odd one. Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa don't move the needle enough for me.
At age 36 I truly wonder how much is left in the tank. There was no big "splash" that everyone has expected from this team. The rest of their division got better and the Yankees stayed about the same, or in some areas got worse. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on them for the division.
Rays +330 (Bet $100 to win $330)
You're joking, right? The team that won 100 games last year and the team that's won the division each of the past two years has just the third-best odds to win the division? Wander Franco is a budding star and will likely only get better this upcoming year, and they added a veteran arm in Corey Kluber.
I understand they are losing guys like Nelson Cruz, Collin McHugh, Michael Wacha, etc. but I'm really not concerned. Year after year the Rays remain competitive despite what their payroll says. When the Rays went to the World Series in 2020, they had the third-lowest payroll in baseball. They just find a way, and I think they can again this year too.
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Red Sox +600 (Bet $100 to win $600)
Chaim Bloom surprised a lot of people and had this team competitive again in 2021. They ended up going on a run to the ALCS in six games. I like the addition of Trevor Story as well and think he will have some fun hitting in that ballpark with the Green Monster in Left Field. Chris Sale is expected to miss significant time again this year, which will be a massive blow for this Red Sox rotation.
This team is still solid, but will it have enough to jump over the Rays or the Blue Jays? I say doubtful.
Orioles +20000 (Bet $100 to win $20,000)
Sorry Orioles fans, not yet.