MLB NL Cy Young Odds Update: Carlos Rodon Jumps Into the Top Five

MLB NL Cy Young Odds Update: Carlos Rodon Jumps Into the Top Five

Carlos Rodon jumps into the top five pitchers to be considered for the NL Cy Young award at this stage in the MLB season. Ryan Kirksey breaks down the latest MLB NL Cy Young odds.

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Clayton Kershaw Cy Young Odds: (+2000, Previous: Unranked) (Bet $100 to win $2000)

Kershaw is also tied with Brandon Woodruff at +2000, but Woodruff isn't even the best pitcher on his own team, so I'm not sure he will ever make the top three on this list barring some kind of injury to Burnes. Kershaw also has a teammate on this list, but the way he is pitching lately, Kershaw is making his case that he is not quite ready to turn over the title of Dodgers' ace just yet.

Through just his first 23 innings, Kershaw's 11.74 strikeout rate and 0.78 walk rate are all the best numbers of his career. They will certainly regress some, but it's clear any of us who wrote off Kershaw before the seasons began due to injury concerns may have been premature. We know Kershaw struggled to get his 121 innings pitched last season, but he made his full allotment of starts in 2020 and averaged 27 starts per game in 2017-2019 as well. Like Carlos Rodon later on this list, you can be sure the Dodgers will be exceptionally careful with Kershaw this season, so I don't expect 30 starts as a reasonable outcome. But if it's clear he is going to get to 28 or 29 starts with these numbers, we need to start laying our units down on him as soon as possible.

Walker Buehler Cy Young Odds: (+1100, Previous: +950) (Bet $100 to win $1100)

You'll see some separation between Buehler and the rest of this list in the odds because of the sheer dominance of the top three pitchers. Buehler has good back-of-the-baseball-card numbers, but they cover up what could be some regression coming for the talented 27-year-old ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Buehler has an incredible 2.12 ERA through five starts, allowing just seven earned runs in 29.2 innings. But his xERA and xFIP are both over 3.5 for a number of factors. First, his strikeout rate has tumbled to 7.89 this year. That's a far cry from his career 9.82 mark. Some of that might be due to the decreased velocity on his wipeout slider, and there is still plenty of time to turn it around. His HR/FB rate is a minuscule 6.1% so far on 39% fly balls. That rate is sure to come up throughout the season, especially playing in Dodger Stadium. I see a lot of future success for Buehler, especially with how many times he will get to face Colorado and Arizona, but for me, the Cy Young award is not in the cards this year.

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Carlos Rodon Cy Young Odds: (+600, Previous: Unranked) (Bet $100 to win $600)

Rodon flies up to near the top of this list on the back of an unbelievable start to the 2022 campaign for the San Francisco Giants. Rodon leads the NL in WAR and is third in ERA and strikeouts, behind only the two names ahead of him on this list. All of the advanced metrics back up the hot start and the only mild downside you can point to is a slightly elevated walk rate at 3.10 per nine innings. He is approaching 50% flyballs this season, so that needs to come down some as summer games outside of Oracle Park are looming, but this is the skill set the Giants wanted when they took a chance on a two-year $44 million deal.

The issue with Rodon, of course, is that he is oft-injured and that's why he couldn't get more than a two-year contract. Rodon hasn't pitched more than 130 innings since 2016, although last season's 24 starts were a step in the right direction. I think if the Giants could get 28 starts and a healthy Rodon in the playoffs, they would take that. But just be cautious of the Giants limiting Rodon down the stretch. They likely won't hesitate to give him a 10-day IL stint for even the most minor reasons.

Corbin Burnes Cy Young Odds: (+550, Previous: +800) (Bet $100 to win $550)

Out to prove that the Cy Young award from last season was no fluke, Burnes is off to a torrid start to begin this season. His first start of the year was a just-alright five innings, three earned runs, and four strikeouts. But since that time, he averages 10 strikeouts per game and has allowed four earned runs in four starts. His 11.85 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 all maybe a tick below last season, but they are still elite. And there are also signs that Burnes could even improve.

Burnes' HR/FB ratio this season is 16.7%, the third-highest in the NL. He is allowing more flyballs this season than any other in his career as well. If both of those things course-correct somewhat, we could be looking at even better surface stats moving forward. The Brewers are right on the tail of the team with the best record in the NL and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The only thing that is holding Burnes back right now is the potential hangover effect from winning the award last season. But Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Jacob DeGrom have all been repeat winners in the last 10 years, so why not Burnes?

Max Scherzer Cy Young Odds: (+500, Previous: +800) (Bet $100 to win $500)

He may be getting thrown out of games when he doesn't start, but when he is on the mound, Scherzer has been as dominant as ever to start the 2022 season. The ERA (2.61), strikeout rate (12.19 per nine), walk rate (2.61 per nine) are all at or better than his career averages. He is third in the NL in innings pitched and shows no signs of slowing down at age 37.

Scherzer also has two major benefits working in his favor this year. First, the move to Citi Field gives Scherzer a major park boost. The Met's home stadium ranks 20th in offensive park factor over the past three years compared to Dodger Stadium (14th) or Nationals Park (5th). Just by playing pitching half his games in that stadium, he gets a boost to his projections. Second, the Mets are leading the National League with an 18-8 record so far. While Chris Bassitt and Tylor Megill have been amazing so far, it's Scherzer who will get the headlines and the fanfare. With Jacob DeGrom still out for a while, this is his pitching staff and also his Cy Young award to lose.

MLB NL Cy Young Odds Update

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