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MLB NL Rookie of the Year Odds: MacKenzie Gore Takes Over the Lead

Padres pitcher MacKenzie Gore has taken the lead in MLB NL Rookie of the Year. Ryan Kirksey breaks down the NL Rookie of the Year odds.
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MLB NL Rookie of the Year Odds: MacKenzie Gore Takes Over the Lead

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Oneill Cruz NL Rookie of the Year Odds (+2500, Previous: +2500) (Bet $100 to Win $2500)

The fact that Oneill Cruz is still hanging around as a top-five contender says two things. First, oddsmakers and baseball analysts still really believe in his talent for Cruz despite some struggles this year. Second, it speaks to the lack of NL ROY competition that someone who hasn't played a single inning in the majors can still be considered one of the five favorites.

Despite recent injuries and a slew of call-ups, the Pirates have yet to promote Cruz to the majors. After a very slow April, Cruz has improved to a .231/.338/.431 line with nine homers and 11 steals. At some point, the production will look too good for AAA and he will be called up. But will he have enough time to overtake others on this list? That's the risk baked into a +2500 tag.

Alex Thomas NL Rookie of the Year Odds (+1400, Previous: Unranked) (Bet $100 to Win $1400)

The highly-prized, second-round pick for the Arizona Diamondbacks has looked outstanding in his first 34 games in the Big Show. At .270/.336/443 with five home runs and three steals, he has looked better than Nolan Gorman in many ways. But the Arizona Diamondbacks are languishing again with a 29-35 record so they don't get the recognition of the division-leading Cardinals.

But Thomas has been a major bright spot for Arizona and is now a fixture in the Diamondbacks' lineup. His low 18% strikeout rate proves his excellent plate discipline, especially for a rookie. The major knock on Thomas is his too-high 60.2% groundball rate. His speed can help turn some of those into hits, but he needs to start elevating the ball at this level to have major success. Thomas was a frequent 20% line-drive hitter in the minors, so his 11.8% rate in the majors should eventually start to rise.

Seiya Suzuki NL Rookie of the Year Odds (+550, Previous: -125) (Bet $100 to Win $550)

A strained left ring finger is the cause of a recent trip to the injured list for Seiya Suzuki. Considering the Cubs have not offered any update about when Suzuki might be in the lineup, the talented rookie from Japan might see his grasp on the NL ROY award slipping away.

However, maybe the break is what is best for him long-term. After a scorching April where Suzuki hit .279/.405/.529, he plummeted to .211/.278/.338 in May and looked lost at times. It's a common issue when foreign players come to the big leagues and opposing teams get some film on their downsides. Can Suzuki come back soon and readjust to the different pitch mixes he is seeing? At just +550, that's not a bet I am willing to make right now.

Nolan Gorman NL Rookie of the Year Odds (+350, Previous: Unranked) (Bet $100 to Win $350)

In just his first 84 plate appearances in the big leagues, Nolan Gorman has roared to the top of the National League ROY favorites. His overall numbers of .267/.345/.440 with three homers and 12 RBI are just what the St. Louis Cardinals were hoping for when they called up their top prospect and asked him to cover the second base position while Tommy Edman shifted to shortstop.

But things haven't been all that impressive for Gorman in recent days. In the past two weeks, Gorman has a .182/250/.273 slash line with a 35% strikeout rate. He is getting to the point where Suzuki was in May, where pitchers are beginning to discover the holes in Gorman's swing. He will need to make some switches to accommodate that or risk falling down this list. I will personally need to see some of those adjustments before I make any bets on Gorman at around +350.

MacKenzie Gore NL Rookie of the Year Odds (+200, Previous: +500) (Bet $100 to Win $200)

Anyone who threw down some speculative bets on MacKenzie Gore at +2500 to win ROY when the season started is surely very happy here on June 15th. Gore is still dominating this year with a 2.50 ERA, 10.73 K/9, and just a 2.4% home run/fly ball rate. Along with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, he has helped solidify a San Diego rotation that has been plagued by injury for Mike Clevinger and terrible outings from Blake Snell.

Gore is delivering a strong 43.4% ground ball rate and his batting average on balls in play allowed (.309) is actually a touch higher than the league average. We could see some mild regression there and a slight improvement in the ratios going forward. With Suzuki sidelined and Gorman with a lot of work to do to catch up, it shouldn't be a surprise that Gore is the odds-on favorite today.

OddsPlayerPrevious Odds
+2500Oneill Cruz+2500
+1400Alex ThomasUnranked
+550Seiya Suzuki-125
+350Nolan GormanUnranked
+200Mackenzie Gore+500

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Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. When I'm not with my wife and two kids I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. I once played Pat Connaughton in an actual NBA DFS lineup for money. Astros, Rockets, and Texans for life.


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