2022 MLB Home Run Derby: Ranking the Five Players Most Likely to Win It

2022 MLB Home Run Derby: Ranking the Five Players Most Likely to Win It

The 2022 Home Run Derby field has not yet been announced, but considering we get to choose from the field, who would be the most likely players to win it? Here we rank the five players who would have the best shot at a home run title at this year's festivities.

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5. Kyle Schwarber

Are you looking for the guy who has the most home runs in the major leagues since June 1st? How about the guy with a top-ten average exit velocity and a top-ten maximum home run distance? Then Kyle Schwarber is your man. Schwarber already has a National League-leading 27 home runs on the year, but if he were playing all his games in Angels Stadium (who are hosting the Home Run Derby), he would have 30 bombs.

4. Giancarlo Stanton

No list of potential home run contest winners is complete without Giancarlo Stanton on the list. He is top-in max exit velocity, average exit velocity, and barrels per plate appearance this year. He may have "only" 21 home runs this year, but he has 100th percentile Statcast data and has been top one percent in MLB for eight straight years. Stanton may not accept an invite to the derby this year, but make no mistake, he would go very far if he entered.

3. Shohei Ohtani

Forget the fact that Ohtani has only 18 home runs on the year. Why would pitchers pitch to Ohtani considering the entire Angels offense is Ohtani, Mike Trout, and not much else? Ohtani has the second-highest max exit velocity on a ball hit this season (119.1 mph) and his average home run (416 feet) is top-12 in MLB. There is also no player in baseball who hits more majestic home runs, ones that look so pure, so towering, and so undoubtable that you just have to watch him in awe of what he can do.

2. Aaron Judge

Of course we will include the only player who is on pace for 60 home runs and might be the most feared power hitter in the game this season. If Judge's 30 home runs are not impressive enough, Judge is working within the same framework as we saw with Kyle Schwarber. If Judge played all of his games at Angels Stadium, he would have an even more impressive 34 bombs, according to Baseball Savant. Judge leads MLB in both barrels per plate appearance as well as numbers of barrels by 12 more than the next-closest player (56).

1. Yordan Alvarez

Major League Baseball has a new leader in average exit velocity in Yordan Alvarez. His 96.0 mph on his balls on play is now harder than Stanton, Judge. Ohtani, and other mashers such as Franmil Reyes and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Alvarez has been gaining on Judge in the home run race over the last five weeks and has the most homers in the American League since June 1 (12 total). His .814 slugging percentage in that span is more than 100 points better than any other player, and he has established his place now as one of the premier power hitters in our game. Put him in a contest with 65-mph meatballs being thrown down the middle and he will put on a show.