MLB MVP Odds: Ranking the Top Five Candidates in Each League at the All-Star Break

MLB MVP Odds: Ranking the Top Five Candidates in Each League at the All-Star Break

As Major League Baseball enters its annual All-Star Break, each league's top MVP candidates are coming more clearly into view. Let's break down the top five in the American League and National League to see where there is any betting value.

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American League MVP Odds

5. Rafael Devers (+2300)

Seemingly full recovered from some nagging injuries that kept him out of the Red Sox lineup in early July, Devers homered three straight games over the weekend and is on pace to have the best statistical season of his career. Devers has finished top-12 in MVP voting twice in the past, and while he is not likely to win this year thanks to the magical seasons for Ohtani and Judge, Devers will undoubtedly have his first top-five finish in MVP voting. Devers is first among all third basemen in WAR this season, and there is surely an MVP award in his future somewhere down the road.

4. Mike Trout (+2000)

The issue with Trout's MVP candidacy is not with his own production (.270/.368/.599 with 24 home runs). Rather, the Angels have been so godawful lately it's led to some visible frustration for the superstar. Combine that with recent back troubles that caused him to miss the past five games and this looks to be another season where the Angels are wasting the prime of their franchise superstar.

3. Yordan Alvarez (+1400)

Yordan Alvarez landing on the IL a couple weeks before the All-Star Break slightly derails what was shaping up to be an epic season for the just-turned 25-year-old. Alvarez is still slashing .306/.405/.653 with 26 home runs, and the homers and slugging percentage are both top-two in the American League. Alvarez also is top five in the AL in walk rate, on-base percentage, and RBI. Alvarez also looks to be a shoo-in to win an MVP award someday, and at his age, the peak years haven't even arrived yet.

2. Aaron Judge (+160)

Aaron Judge is going to make a push for 60 home runs in historic Yankee Stadium, a number that carries much historical significance considering the names Babe Ruth and Roger Maris. But will that be enough to overcome the offensive and pitching dominance from Shohei Ohtani? Over the past few weeks, the odds have shifted wildly in Ohtani's favorite, as Judge has dropped a good amount behind the two-way player in oddsmakers' eyes. Judge has a legitimate shot at leading the AL in home runs and RBI while also batting .300. Historically, those kind of numbers would make him a lock for the award. But Judge is unfortunately going up against a force that hasn't been seen in 100 years.

1. Shohei Ohtani (-105)

We are not seeing the kind of offensive dominance we got from Ohtani in 2021 when he hit 46 home runs with 103 runs, 100 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. His slugging percentage is down more than 100 points from last year, but he is still close to a 40/100/100 pace. But it's in his pitching where he has taken things to another level this year. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched this year, Ohtani is second in strikeout rate, eighth in WAR, and eighth in ERA. In the last 30 days, Ohtani is 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA and 15.53 K/9 innings. All signs right now point to a back-to-back MVP win for Ohtani this year.

Click here for the latest AL MVP odds

National League MVP Odds

5. Mookie Betts (+1400)

We will likely never see the 2018, MVP-winning version of Mookie Betts again, but after a severe drop in power last year, signs are pointing back up for Betts in 2022. He is on pace for more than 35 home runs this season and could flirt with 100 runs and 90 RBI while stealing more than 10 bases. Betts is fourth among all MLB outfielders in WAR this season and the Dodgers are crossing their fingers that the rib injury that caused Betts to miss 17 games earlier this season is fully healed for the playoffs.

4. Austin Riley (+1400)

After a breakout season in 2021 when Riley hit 33 home runs with 107 RBI and a .303/.367/.531 slash line, there were concerns about whether he could repeat in 2022. His BABIP was a very high .368 in 2021 and he struck out more than 25% of the time. All Riley has done this year is exceed everyone's most optimistic expectations and put himself on pace for a 50-homer, 120-RBI season with a similar slash line to 2021. Riley is also proving to be one of the more durable players in MLB, missing only two games so far this season while playing in 160 last year. Goldschmidt does seem to have the upper hand on this award, but I am quite a big fan of Riley at these odds as a darkhorse candidate in the NL.

3. Pete Alonso (+1000)

Alonso's 2022 slash line (.265/.339/.517) is almost a carbon copy of 2021 (.262/.344/.519), but he is already two-thirds of the way to his home run total last season (37 in 2021, 24 already this year), and he leads the majors in RBI. Alonso also has an outside chance to surpass both his 53 home runs and 120 RBI from his masterful rookie season in 2019. His success has helped propel the Mets to the top of the NL East despite no Jacob DeGrom and being without Max Scherzer for more than a month. I do like Riley a bit more at their respective odds, but any slip by Machado or Goldschmidt in the second half could send Alonso to the top of this list.

2. Manny Machado (+550)

Despite how good he has been overall this season, I am completely out on Machado being a viable MVP candidate in the NL this year. His 303/.377/.513 slash line is still cashing checks from April when he hit .386/.453/.614. In July, Machado only hit .193/.281/.368 with three homers and just five RBI. Clearly he won't be that bad over the balance of the season, but it won't be a shock to see players like Riley and Alonso pass Machado in the weeks to come. San Diego has now fallen 10 games behind the Dodgers in the standings, so there is no reason to think Machado will have any extra support for an MVP win.

1. Paul Goldschmidt (+110)

I'm not sure anyone could have predicted that at age 34 Paul Goldschmidt could have this type of season, but his production this year is better than any season when he was routinely finishing in the top-10 of MVP voting from 2013 to 2018. Goldy's .330 average and .590 slugging percentage both represent career-highs if they continue for the St. Louis first baseman. Goldschmidt is in the top five of many offensive categories this year, including RBI, WAR, and he leads the majors in on-base percentage. An MVP for Goldschmidt - which looks likely at this point - would be a fine feather in the cap for a career that includes seven All Star appearances, four Silver Slugger Awards, and a host of top-12 finishes in MVP voting.

Click here for the latest NL MVP odds