MLB MVP Race: Has Aaron Judge's Historic Season Made Him a Lock for MVP?

MLB MVP Race: Has Aaron Judge's Historic Season Made Him a Lock for MVP?

With Aaron Judge on pace to break the American League home run record, can Shohei Ohtani or any other AL contender take him down for the MVP? Let's evaluate the top five options for AL MVP according to oddsmakers.

MLB MVP Race Breakdown

Rafael Devers MLB MVP Odds (+10000) (Bet $100 to win $10000)

Rafael Devers' MVP chances are hampered not only by the fact that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are doing otherworldly things, but the Red Sox have begun a tailspin, falling four games and four teams out of the final Wild Card spot in the AL. When he has been healthy, Devers is doing all he can to lift this team up. He is slashing .322/.378/.603 in what is the best season of his career, but there are just too many external factors to overcome. Devers has finished top-12 in MVP voting twice in the past, and while he won't win this year thanks to the magical seasons for Ohtani and Judge, Devers is tied for third among all third basemen in WAR this season, and there is surely an MVP award in his future somewhere down the road.

Jose Ramirez MLB MVP Odds (+6600) (Bet $100 to win $6600)

One of the surprise teams of the year is the Cleveland Guardians, who are riding the strength of strong starting pitching, elite on-base ability, and a superstar-type season from Jose Ramirez to a 54-51 record, just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Alongside a team of nondescript hitters (Josh Naylor, Owen Miller, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, etc.) Ramirez is having one of the best seasons of his career, slashing .282/.356/.553 and on pace for 30 home runs and 20+ stolen bases. Ramirez has already been around for parts of 10 major league seasons, but he is still just 29 years old and is one of the best on-base plus speed options in baseball today. He deserves a lot of credit for the Guardians' turnaround, but will likely not have enough juice to bring home an MVP.

Yordan Alvarez (+5000) (Bet $100 to win $5000)

At least by his 2022 statistics, Alvarez is clearly in the same stratosphere as Ohtani and Judge, but he has some serious things working against him that will likely prevent him from winning. First, he is not on the historic pace that Judge is for home runs. Aaron Judge playing for the Yankees and chasing some hallowed records give him a cache that Alvarez can not touch. Secondly, Alvarez can't come close to competing with the on-the-field contributions of Shohei Ohtani. While Alvarez DH's most games, Ohtani is contributing on both sides of the ball and has been an elite pitcher for almost half a season now. In the end, voters will hold those things against him when there are two other worthy candidates. But in terms of his overall offense, he is second maybe only to Judge this year.

Shohei Ohtani MLB MVP Odds (+375) (Bet $100 to win $375)

Considering the recent stretch of dominance both at the plate and on the mound, the conversation has resurfaced about whether or not we are watching the best overall baseball player ever right now. While his production lately has been merely very, very good (.253/.380/.542 the last 30 days), it's not hyperbole to say that Ohtani has been one of the best pitchers in the major leagues recently. In the month of July, Ohtani posted a 3.20 ERA with a crazy 15.6 K/9 rate. It seems like on a nightly basis, Ohtani is doing things we have never seen before, at least since Babe Ruth played on both sides of the ball. The -420 number for Judge will be a tough one to overcome, but Ohtani is doing everything he can. I just can't personally pull the trigger at +375 for MVP when Judge is doing what he is doing.

Aaron Judge MLB MVP Odds (-420) (Bet $420 to win $100)

What more can be said about Aaron Judge at this point? As if he needed any other motivation in this contract-year season, there was chatter around the end of July that Shohei Ohtani was definitely the MVP when he was mowing people down on the mound. In fact, at one point, Ohtani passed Judge as the odds-on favorite to win the award. But all Judge has done in the last 30 days is hit .356/.472/.897 with 14 home runs and 33 RBI. He is on pace for a crazy 66 home runs and 15 steals. Only Barry Bonds in 2001 and Sammy Sosa in 1998 have matched those kinds of numbers, and we know their performance was, ahem, aided in those campaigns. This is all Aaron Judge in a run-scoring environment that is the worst in MLB since 2015. As baseball fans, we have the absolute pleasure of getting to sit back for two months and watch one of the game's best hitters chase one of its all-time records.

MLB MLV Race Odds

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