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NL Cy Young Odds: Sandy Alcantara Separates Himself From the Pack in Cy Young Race

The Miami Marlins may be going nowhere fast, but Sandy Alcantara has put together a historic season on the mound. Can any other pitcher in the NL catch him for the NL Cy Young award?
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NL Cy Young Odds: Sandy Alcantara Separates Himself From the Pack in Cy Young Race

The Miami Marlins may be going nowhere fast, but Sandy Alcantara has put together a historic season on the mound. Can any other pitcher in the NL catch him for the NL Cy Young award?

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National League Cy Young Odds

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Max Fried NL Cy Young Odds (+5000) (Bet $100 to Win $5000)

A recent trip to the concussion IL puts a small damper on what has been an excellent season for Max Fried, perhaps the best of his career. When he returns, he will have a pristine 2.60 ERA and a 10-4 record for the surging Atlanta Braves. His 50.5% groundball rate is one of the best in the National League, which makes up for the relatively low strikeout rate (22.9%).

The only knock on Fried is that the Braves rarely let him go very deep into games. He has only reached seven innings seven times this season, and only one of those times has come in the last month. It's a smart move by the Braves to make sure Fried isn't too taxed for the playoffs, but since He has never gone over 165 innings in his career, don't expect a big innings push when he comes back from injury. He currently sits at 138 innings on the year.

Carlos Rodon NL Cy Young Odds (+5000) (Bet $100 to Win $5000)

If there was a first-half Cy Young award, Rodon may very well have taken home that hardware. Rodon left the first half of the season with a 2.66 ERA, 11.23 K/9, and a very strong 1.11 WHIP. But while the strikeout rate and WHIP have remained elite in the second half, his ERA has ballooned up to 3.99. That ratio combined with the Giants' second-half struggles knocks Rodon out of contention for the Cy Young this year.

The culprit for the second-half slide for Rodon has been the reversal in luck on home runs hit against him. In the first half, his home run per flyball (HR/FB) rate was just 3.5%. In the second half, it shot up to 13.2%, closer to the league average. He also is allowing 52% flyballs in the second half compared to 40.6% in the first half, so that deadly combination is what has pushed up the ERA by more than a run the several weeks.

Tony Gonsolin NL Cy Young Odds (+4000) (Bet $100 to Win $4000)

All season long, we have been waiting for the regression from Tony Gonsolin. But with less than six weeks left in the season, what if it never comes? Shouldn't someone who has a 14-1 record with a 2.24 ERA and just 0.85 HR/9 allowed on the best team in the majors be considered for the award? Yes, his batting average on balls in play (.203) is laughably below the MLB average, but this just may be a lucky season for him.

A pitcher going at least 116 innings with 14 or more wins with an ERA less than 2.25 (Gonsolin meets all criteria), has only happened 11 times since the year 2000 and includes pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, and Cy Young winners Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke. Gonsolin may not win this award in 2022, but he should be a lot closer to the top than +4000. Sometimes players just have one of those magical seasons, and that's what is happening for Gonsolin.

Corbin Burnes NL Cy Young Odds (+1200) (Bet $100 to Win $1200)

Last season's NL Cy Young Winner is having a season just as good as 2021, with just slightly more walks after leading the league in that category a year ago. His 2.39 ERA and 11.39 K/9 rate are in line with last year and he is likely to surpass the 11 wins he had when he won the award. Even his xERA (2.78) and his xFIP (2.86) tell the story of how dominant Burnes has been once again this year.

But still, Burnes trails well behind Sandy Alcantara in all sportsbook odds as we get closer to five weeks left in the season. His problem is he is up against another Cy Young opponent who has been even better in almost 30 more innings over the course of the year. It shouldn't diminish the great season Burnes is having, but will likely prevent him from back-to-back Cy Young awards unless Alcantara somehow sees his game fall off a cliff.

Sandy Alcantara NL Cy Young Odds (-350) (Bet $350 to Win $100)

The fact that Sandy Alcantara has been so unhittable this year is a tremendous feat in and of itself, but when you consider what he has done with the number of innings he has pitched, it makes the numbers all the more remarkable. Alcantara has pitched 173 innings in his first 24 starts or 7.21 innings per outing. If we assume he has 10 more starts left, that will put him at just over 245 innings for the year. In the past 11 years, only one pitcher has reached that number - David Price in 2014.

But it gets better. If Alcantara can hold onto an ERA under 2.00, he would be the first pitcher since Dwight Gooden in 1985 to reach 245 innings with an ERA under 2.00. Put all that dominance together and mix it with the quality innings he is giving the Marlins this season, and it's no wonder he is so far out in the lead for the NL Cy Young Award.

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Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. When I'm not with my wife and two kids I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. I once played Pat Connaughton in an actual NBA DFS lineup for money. Astros, Rockets, and Texans for life.


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