NL Rookie of the Year Odds: Spencer Strider Now Given a 49% Chance to Win NL Rookie of Year Race

NL Rookie of the Year Odds: Spencer Strider Now Given a 49% Chance to Win NL Rookie of Year Race

In a quiet year for National League rookie production, two players from the Atlanta Braves stand above the rest and have almost identical odds heading into the last week of the season. Will Spencer Strider or Michael Harris take home the award? Ryan Kirksey breaks down the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds Breakdown

Click Here for the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds

Seiya Suzuki (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $1000)

After Suzuki won the NL Rookie of the Month award in April, it looked unlikely that anyone would be able to challenge him for the rest of the season. He hit .279/.405/.529 that month with four homers and 13 RBI and looked like the next great Asian import to the Major Leagues. He was experienced, had good plate discipline, and secure playing time. But then a major slump in May happened, followed by a lengthy wrist injury, and he hasn't been the same since.

So far in the second half, Suzuki is slashing .181/.228/.309 with just three home runs and 10 RBI. It just proves that even the most experienced rookies are not immune from major slumps or adjustments to the majors when they arrive. Suzuki is likely to be a force in the Cubs' lineup for the life of his contract, but this year ended up going the opposite direction of where it was headed after the first four weeks.

Christopher Morel (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $1000)

Christopher Morel is another Cubs rookie who came up and made an immediate impact, hitting a home run in his first at-bat as a Major Leaguer and then proceeding to steal five bases in his first two weeks with the club. Able to play literally all over the diamond, the toolsy prospect looked like he was set to make a huge splash right out of the gate.

But like Suzuki, Morel has also crashed down to earth in the second half. He is slashing only .203/.266/.356 with just two home runs and one steal since the All Star Game. His power is what has taken the biggest hit with the slugging percentage dropping by about 120 points between his first couple of months and the last six weeks. Just barely 23 years old, Morel has plenty of time to make adjustments and get used to the style of pitching he will be consistently in the majors. So while he likely won't win this year, there is a lot of promise considering the power/speed combo he has displayed in his first 75 games.

Brendan Donovan (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $1000)

Versatile Brendan Donovan arrived mostly as an injury replacement for a Cardinals' squad who had players dropping like flies but has carved out a very nice everyday role as a super-utility player who has given St. Louis good at-bats no matter what position he plays in a game.

He may not offer much in the power and steal department (just two of each in his 87 games), but his average (.292) and on-base percentage (.403) are incredibly strong for a rookie, and he has his keen plate discipline to thank. His walk rate is a robust 12.7% this year and he is striking out only 17% of the time. Donovan has an on-base percentage of .385 or higher at every stop since 2019 and he is proving he can hit anywhere in the lineup and get on base at a rate normally seen by elite players.

Michael Harris (+120) (Bet $100 to Win $120)

If Michael Harris plans to win the Rookie of the Year award this season, he is going to have to do it as the position player who has played the fewest games of all the contenders this year. At only 73 games and 275 plate appearances through Thursday, Harris is well behind the pace of other rookies, but it's what he has done in those 73 games that make his season truly special.

In a short amount of time, Harris already has 12 homers and 14 steals while slashing .288/.327/.500. His 162-game pace puts him at 27 homers, 104 runs, 89 RBI, and 31 steals. That's like peak Carlos Beltran numbers, to throw out an old reference. Harris will have the advantage over Spencer Strider of getting to play every day in a home stretch for the division and while he may not have the singular dominance Strider can produce in one start, Harris is going to be able to pile up a lot of big stats between now and the end of September.

Spencer Strider (+105) (Bet $100 to Win $105)

While you can find +105 odds for Strider at a couple of sportsbooks, many already have Strider in the minus territory (-110 at PointsBets, for example). I don't know that I would go that far yet, as I have Strider and Harris neck and neck for the award as we enter the last five weeks of the regular season.

It is true that Strider has been nothing short of incredible in his 25 games this year (14 starts). Despite playing in a very tough division in the thick of a playoff race, he has posted a 3.04 ERA with a superb 13.50 K/9 rate and only 0.48 HR/9. He possesses a very strong 40.4% ground ball rate and keeps people off the bases with a 1.04 WHIP. I believe voters feel it is harder for a rookie pitcher to come in and find sustainable success than it is for a hitter, so perhaps they do end up going with Strider down the stretch. But these two Atlanta studs are headed for a classic race to the finish these last two weeks.

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