AL MVP Race: Can Anyone Catch Aaron Judge and His Historic Pace?
AL MVP Race: Can Anyone Catch Aaron Judge and His Historic Pace?
Most sportsbooks have declared the AL MVP race over, with Aaron Judge running away with the award. Will he coast to an MVP victory as most predict he will?
American League MVP Odds
The Field (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $10,000)
Yes, that's correct. Most sportsbooks have now taken every player except for the three below off the board. Or, as in the case with DraftKings Sportsbook, lumped them all into a massive +10000 category.
As Kevin Malone once said, you have to take the bet if someone offers you 10,000-to-1 odds, but I don't advise that for this AL MVP race. If it's not Aaron Judge, it will be Ohtani or Ramirez, with little doubt about that outcome. Beyond these three, Yordan Alvarez is next in WAR this season, but it has devolved into merely a great, but not MVP-level campaign for him.
Jose Ramirez (+8500) (Bet $100 to Win $8,500)
Some weird things have been happening to Ramirez's on-base percentage in the second half (only .319, a very low number for him), but otherwise, it's been one of his best seasons as he approaches age 30. Ramirez is second in the league in WAR and will set a new career-high in RBI before the season is over. His strikeout rate is an elite 10% and he still can play an adequate third base for the Guardians.
In terms of a five-tool player, Ramirez has it all. He hits for power, plays good defense, steals bases, and has been very durable this year. Earlier in the season, he was looking like a surefire top-two candidate for MVP, but he may have to settle for third in this year's tough race.
Shohei Ohtani (+700) (Bet $100 to Win $700)
As a hitter, Ohtani has posted 2.7 WAR in 2022 and added another 3.6 as a pitcher. That total of 6.3 trails only Aaron Judge's 7.9 on the season, so it does make some sense that Ohtani has drafted well behind Judge in the MVP race when Ohtani was actually the oddsmakers' favorite six weeks ago.
Ohtani as a batter has merely been very good this year, but it's a far cry from his 46 home runs and 100 RBI from 2021. The .262/.355/.509 slash line is still very good, but the Angels as a team have been so abysmal since about mid-June that even the strongest performance from this once-in-a-lifetime player has not been enough to lift them out of the depths. It looks extremely unlikely Ohtani will repeat as the AL MVP.
Aaron Judge (-700) (Bet $700 to Win $100)
At this point in the MVP race, if you find Judge for as high as -700, those are going to be your best odds to bet, and I recommend grabbing it if this is a race you are inclined to wager on. Only one sportsbook that OddsCheckerUS tracks have Judge as high as -700, while many others list him in the -900 to -1000 range. This is about as locked into an award that a player can be with four weeks to go in a season. Would a season-ending injury even prevent him from winning at this point? Likely not.
If Judge plays all of the Yankees' 38 remaining games, he will finish with 158 on the year. That would give him a 63-home run pace, enough to break Roger Maris' American League record of 61. He also is on pace for more than 125 RBI, 115 runs, and 18 steals. Lump his .297 average into all of that, and we are looking at one of the truly great American League seasons of all time.
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Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. When I'm not with my wife and two kids I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. I once played Pat Connaughton in an actual NBA DFS lineup for money. Astros, Rockets, and Texans for life.