AL Cy Young Odds: Will Justin Verlander's Injury Hurt His Chances in AL Cy Young Race?

AL Cy Young Odds: Will Justin Verlander's Injury Hurt His Chances in AL Cy Young Race?

With injuries to AL Cy Young contenders Justin Verlander and Shane McClanahan, is the door open for any other AL candidates to take home the AL Cy Young award? Ryan Kirksey breaks it down.

American League Cy Young Odds

Framber Valdez AL Cy Young Odds (+5000) (Bet $100 to Win $5000)

Is it possible that the Houston Astros will have two players in the top three of AL Cy Young voting this year? It certainly looks possible now, particularly with the news of an injury to Shane McClanahan, who has ranked in the top-three best odds for a few months. But Valdez is on a historic streak that has vaulted him right into the dark horse Cy Young conversation. this week, Valdez threw his 22nd straight quality start. That game against the Rangers set an MLB record for left-handers and set him up for the last month with a 14-4 record, a 2.63 ERA, and an incredible 67% ground ball rate. The Astros do expect their own injured star, Justin Verlander, back before the end of the season, but it's possible these two finish first and second in the voting this year.

Shohei Ohtani AL Cy Young Odds (+3000) (Bet $100 to Win $3000)

It is shocking that Ohtani did not win AL pitcher of the month for either June or July. Both months went instead to another player down this list. He went through a 30-day stretch where he had a 1.52 ERA with more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings. In doing this, he parlayed that elite performance into the conversation for the Cy Young award and was, at times, the leader in oddsmakers' eyes. Think about that for a second, a major league player who just won the MVP (on the strength of his batting), is second in odds for another and is now in strong contention for a Cy Young Award with some injuries to the players in front of him. He has dropped from +1700 to +3000 in the last month (was as high as +3500), so it's not likely to happen, but this is a generational two-way talent we are watching. At this point, an MVP seems more likely for Ohtani than the Cy Young. But the injuries make it interesting.

Shane McClanahan AL Cy Young Odds (+1500) (Bet $100 to Win $1500)

You always hate to see a player in the midst of such an amazing season go down with an injury, but we may have seen the last of Shane McClanahan for this year. He was placed on the IL with a left shoulder impingement, and the Tampa Bay Rays have offered no other updates beyond that. As the top seed in the AL Wild Card currently, the Rays might be able to take it easy with McClanahan, but if the diagnosis is that he can come back this year, I would expect the Rays to go that route. With how badly the Yankees have played the past month, Tampa Bay is now only seven games out of the AL East lead. At 11-5 with a sterling 2.20 ERA, there were times this year when McClanahan was the favorite to win this award. What his fans can hope for now is a best-case scenario on the shoulder and some dominant starts late in the season and postseason.

Dylan Cease AL Cy Young Odds (+275) (Bet $100 to Win $275)

Just when Cease had the Cy Young door pushed wide open for him, he has hit a little bit of a rough patch (for him, at least), which hasn't moved the needle in terms of his odds of taking home the award. Cease has allowed nine earned runs in his last 18 innings pitched and has not won a game since August 5th. His seasonal numbers still look great with a 2.27 ERA, a 31.7% strikeout rate, and 12 wins, but this has been the wrong time to not look Cy Young-worthy. The last, best hope Cease has is that this calf injury for Verlander keeps him out the rest of the regular season and Cease has to twirl another four amazing starts that would make the voters have to take notice.

Justin Verlander AL Cy Young Odds (-225) (Bet $225 to Win $100)

The question now surrounding Verlander's Cy Young candidacy is a simple one: Has he done enough at this point to be the sure winner if he doesn't pitch again over the last four weeks? Oddsmakers seem to think so as his odds of winning the award have shifted from -175 two weeks ago to between -225 and -250 now. The stats certainly back that up. He has a 16-3 record and an unbelievable 1.84 ERA, especially considering he is 39 years old and coming off of Tommy John surgery. Even if we don't get another start from the ageless Verlander this year, it was a season to behold and one of the best ever for someone with 17 years of experience.

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