Aaron Judge Home Run Odds: Sportsbooks Give Judge a 37% Chance to Break Roger Maris' Record
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds: Sportsbooks Give Judge a 37% Chance to Break Roger Maris' Record
In the second half of the season, the New York Yankees bats have been ice cold. Well, most of the Yankees bats, not all. Aaron Judge has continued his incredible season as he continues to mash baseballs to the moon on an almost nightly basis.
Yesterday, he inched closer to the Yankees record of 61 home runs set by Roger Maris when he sent home run number 53 into orbit.
The Yankees were able to secure that important win and Judge is now eight home runs away from tying Roger Maris with 28 games to go. Let's look at the most recent Aaron Judge home run odds after his impressive showing on Sunday.
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Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
| Home Runs | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Over 61.5 | +170 | 37.04% |
| Under 61.5 | -210 | 67.74% |
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds Breakdown
Sportsbooks are giving him just a 37.04% chance to break Roger Maris' record. They think he will come under the 61 home run record set by Maris in 1961 but if you look at his pace and where Maris was at this time in 1961, that tells a different story.
Through 134 games, Aaron Judge has 53 home runs which is two more than Maris had at that point. Stretched out over a full season, Judge's home run pace is 64 which would clear the record with some cushion on it.
In fact, Judge has more home runs at this point in the season than Sammy Sosa in 1998, Mark McGwire in 1999, and Sammy Sosa again in 2001. All three of those seasons resulted in home runs greater than 61.
I like his chances. The sportsbooks continue to give you plus-money odds on Judge clearing the record. I'm not sure how much longer that lasts.