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MLB MVP Race: Aaron Judge Is Pulling Away in AL MVP Odds

The 2022 MLB season is approaching its final weeks. Aaron Judge has had a historic season and after a short mid-summer slump is pulling away in the American League MVP odds race. Here's a look at the latest AL MVP odds
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MLB MVP Race: Aaron Judge Is Pulling Away in AL MVP Odds

It's been a two-man race throughout the entire second half of the season. It's been Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani for this year's AL MVP. Ohtani ended up winning the award last year. Ohtani does a lot of unusual things. He's an elite starting pitcher and an elite hitter. You just never see that in today's game. However, the Angels have a losing record and won't make the playoffs this year, despite Ohtani pitching an ERA of 2.55 and hitting 34 home runs.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge will push the Yankees into the playoffs with an OPS of 1.102. He's hit 57 home runs and is on pace for 64 to finish the regular season. This is something we're also not used to seeing. Judge has paced the Yankees, especially when the rest of their lineup has struggled to hit.

Here's a look at the updated AL MVP odds.

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MVP OddsMVP CandidateImplied Chance
-2000Aaron Judge95.2%
+850Shohei Ohtani10.5%

Aaron Judge is on Pace for 64 Home Runs

In the new era of baseball, Judge is doing something we've never seen before. His teammate, Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 home runs in 2017 for the Marlins. But no player in this era has reached 60 or more home runs. Only Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds have achieved 60 or more home runs in a season. But it's not just that he's hitting home runs.

Judge has a batting average of .310 with 123 RBIs. He could potentially win the AL Triple Crown if he can get his batting average up over the next three weeks.

As a right-handed batter, it's fantastic to see Judge hit .323 against righties with a 1.135 OPS. 44 of his home runs have come against righties, even as a right-handed batter. And then there will be those people complaining about the Yankees playing in a hitter-friendly park. But Judge has hit 29 home runs at home and 28 on the road. So explain that...

Judge has the Yankees going into the playoffs despite all of the injuries and inconsistencies. That's what a real MVP looks like. At -2000, it's clear the oddsmakers agree with me. Judge is going to win the MVP.

Don't discredit Shohei Ohtani

If we're being realistic, Ohtani can win this award every year. There's no player more valuable than Ohtani from the "valuable" standpoint. He's gone 12-8 with a 2.55 ERA. He's also struck out 188 players, which is 7th best in the MLB.

As a hitter, Ohtani is hitting .265 with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs. He's well on his way to having another potential 40 home runs season with 100 RBIs. That won him the MVP last year. But if Judge is going to get 64 home runs and have one of the best averages in baseball with the most RBIs in baseball, this is a wrap. It's Judge's award. But Ohtani won it last year, so he'll be fine.

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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