Grizzlies vs. Spurs NBA Playoffs Odds: Grizzlies Have 61.5% Chance to Beat Spurs

Grizzlies favored to beat Spurs in Wednesday's Play-In Tournament game
Kyle Newman
Tue, May 18, 1:05 PM EDT

Grizzlies vs. Spurs NBA Playoffs Odds: Grizzlies Have 61.5% Chance to Beat Spurs

The Grizzlies are a tough luck 9th seed, but here they are. They’ll play the Spurs with their playoff hopes on the line and Grizzlies vs. Spurs odds seem to indicate a blowout is on the way.

The Memphis Grizzlies are just so much better than their 9th seed makes it seem. They finished the year 38-34, just one game worse than the Warriors. That would have put them 7th in the East. Meanwhile, the Spurs sit at 33-39, which would have them 10th regardless of their conference. It’s possible that Dejounte Murray or DeMar DeRozan goes off to win this game for the Spurs.

The X-factor in the Grizzlies vs. Spurs odds could be coaching. Gregg Popovich has been in spots like these before. He has a ton of experience in these season deciding games. Popovich’s Spurs are 4-4 in Game 5 of 7s in his coaching career. Meanwhile, Taylor Jenkins has never been the head coach for a playoff game, let alone a season-deciding game in his career. It’s entirely possible that the experience that Popovich and his Spurs squad brings into this game will put them over the top.

Grizzlies vs. Spurs Betting

Grizzlies vs. Spurs odds opened with Memphis as the favorites to take home a win. Oddsmakers give them -160 odds, or an implied 61.5% chance to win the game. Meanwhile, the Spurs are given +145 odds, or an implied 40.8% chance to pull off the upset. Point spreads range from Grizzlies -4.5/Spurs +4.5 to Grizzlies -1.5/Spurs +1.5.

The Grizzlies did win the regular season series between these two teams. After losing to the Spurs on opening day, the Grizzlies won back to back games in San Antonio later in the year. Still, these teams haven’t played each other since February 1st. Neither is the team they were at that point in the season.

Ja Morant averaged 25.3 points per game during that series. However, the Spurs played him tougher as the season went on. He scored 44 in the first meeting, 19 in the second, and 13 in the final meeting. Now Popovich and the Spurs have had time to specifically scout him out.

On the flip side, the Grizzlies basically neutralized DeMar DeRozan during the regular season. Sure he put up 28 in the first meeting, but he was held to just 5 and 14 in the other two. Without DeRozan, the Spurs might not have the offensive fire power to compete.

That all leads to a simple question. Is the difference in playoff experience enough reason for the spread to be as close as it is?

Grizzlies vs. Spurs Odds

Team

Odds

Implied chance

Memphis Grizzlies

-160

61.5%

San Antonio Spurs

+145

40.8%

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