Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds: NBA Playoffs Betting Preview

We break down the latest odds and betting data ahead of a 2020 playoff rematch between the Heat and Bucks
Kyle Newman
Thu, May 20, 5:29 AM EDT

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds: NBA Playoffs Betting Preview 

In a 2020 rematch, the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Miami Heat. One year ago, it was the Heat who came out on top, but oddsmakers see a different result in 2021.

The Miami Heat have crested at the right time this year, as they always seem to do. However, their running into a buzzsaw of a Bucks team. It’s hard to see how the Heat have the offensive firepower to match the Bucks. Milwaukee is averaging 120 points per game, the Heat have scored 120 points, in regulation, just 11 times this season. Could they steal a game or two on a Bucks off shooting night, absolutely. However, it’s just hard to see them matching the Bucks firepower over a full series.

The series X-factor is simply Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is one of the best players in the NBA, but he struggles in the playoffs. From 2017/18-2019/20 Giannis has averaged 27.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game in the regular season. In the playoffs that drops to 23.7 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. If Giannis can bring his regular season form to this series could be over quick.

View odds for the matchup here.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

Entering the series the Bucks are given strong -275 odds, or an implied 73.3% chance to walk away victorious. Meanwhile, the Heat are given +235 odds, or an implied 29.9% chance to pull off the upset for a second straight year.

Oddsmakers honestly don’t even see the series as much of a competition. The Bucks are given +250 odds, or a 28.6% chance to win in 5 games. The best odds given to the Heat is +700, or an implied 12.5% chance to win the series in 6 games.

The Milwaukee Bucks won the season series. They averaged 125 points per game in those three games, better than their 120 points per game season average. If the Bucks are going to score at a clip above their season average in this series, then this will be a short series.

If there’s one piece of good news for the Heat, it’s that they didn’t have Jimmy Butler in any of the three games they played the Bucks this year. They still managed to steal a game. With a healthy Butler likely back for the playoffs, the Heat have a strong reason to believe that they could steal this series.

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Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Playoff Series Outcome Odds

Result

Odds

Implied chance

Bucks in 5

+250

28.6%

Bucks in 7

+350

22.2%

Bucks in 6

+400

20%

Heat in 6

+700

12.5%

Bucks in 4

+700

12.5%

Heat in 7

+850

10.5%

Heat in 5

+1600

5.9%

Heat in 4

+3300

2.9%

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