2022 NBA Draft Odds: Oddsmakers Mini-Mock Draft

The NBA Draft is just under two weeks away. How do oddsmakers think the lottery will shake out? Kyle Newman dives deeper into the latest 2022 NBA Draft Odds and provides us with a mini-mock draft here.
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2022 NBA Draft Odds: Oddsmakers Mini-Mock Draft

The NBA Draft is just under two weeks away, and oddsmakers are preparing for the event by releasing odds for potential lottery picks. So how do oddsmakers think the lottery will shake out?

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2022 NBA Mock Draft

1. Orlando Magic – Jabari Smith, F, Auburn

This is a lock according to oddsmakers. Jabari Smith is given -425 odds, or an implied 81% chance to be the first pick in the draft.

The only other player with even a 10% chance is Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren who’s given +380 odds, or an implied 20.8% chance.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 1st Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Jabari Smith-42581%
Chet Holmgren+38020.8%
Paolo Banchero+15006.3%

2. Oklahoma City Thunder – Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga

This is another lock. With Smith off the board, oddsmakers have the Thunder locked in on Holmgren. The big man from Gonzaga is given -350 odds, or an implied 77.8% chance to go second overall.

Paolo Banchero is technically in the running with +400 odds, or an implied 20% chance to go second.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 2nd Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Chet Holmgren-35077.8%
Paolo Banchero+40020%

3. Houston Rockets – Paolo Banchero, F, Duke

This is the biggest lock in the draft to this point. The Rockets are just going to take whichever of the top 3 slides to them, and with Smith and Holmgren expected to be off the board Banchero is the easy choice. Oddsmakers give Banchero -500 odds, or an implied 83.3% chance to go third overall.

Jaden Ivey is in play as well at +750, or an implied 11.8% chance to be the pick.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 3rd Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Paolo Banchero-50083.3%
Jaden Ivey+75011.8%

4. Sacramento Kings – Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

There’s been a lot of talk about this pick. With Ivery, Shaedon Sharpe, and Keegan Murray all in the conversation. Well, oddsmakers don’t believe it’s really much of a discussion. Ivey is given -330 odds, or an implied 76.7% chance to be the pick.

That said, both Sharpe, +450, and Murray, +500, are still in play.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 4th Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Jaden Ivey-33076.7%
Shaedon Sharpe+45018.2%
Keegan Murray+50016.7%

5. Detroit Pistons – Keegan Murray, F, Iowa

This is the first pick in the draft where there’s a real conversation. Keegan Murray is the strong favorite with -120 odds, or an implied 54.5% chance of being the pick.

However, Shaedon Sharpe is right there at +210, or an implied 32.3% chance of being the pick. Dyson Daniels is also in play for the first time here at +600, or an implied 14.3% chance.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 5th Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Keegan Murray-12054.5%
Shaedon Sharpe+21032.3%
Dyson Daniels+60014.3%
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6. Indiana Pacers – Dyson Daniels, G/F, G League Ignite

This is probably the first surprise pick of this mini-mock. Oddsmakers aren’t sure what to make of this pick. Shaedon Sharpe and Dyson Daniels are clearly the best of the rest after the top-5 with both given -2500 odds, or an implied 96.2% chance to be a top-10 pick.

However, neither is expected to go top-6. In fact, no player is expected to go under 6.5 after the first 5 players. So why Daniels here? Well, oddsmakers set his over/under at 6.5, and while he’s given -170 odds or an implied 63% chance to go over, Sharpe is given -125 odds or an implied 55.6% chance to go over his over/under of 7.5.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 6th Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Dyson Daniels-250096.2%
Shaedon Sharpe-250096.2%

7. Portland Trail Blazers – Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona

This is another tough one. Oddsmakers have Sharpe as clearly the better prospect at -2500 to go top-10 compared to Mathurin’s -400.

However, Mathurin’s over/under is set at 8.5 and he’s given -180 odds, or an implied 64.3% chance to go under. Meanwhile, Sharpe is given -125 odds, or an implied 55.6% chance to go over.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 7th Overall Pick

Bennedict Mathurin8.5 overall-180 (Under)/+150 (Over)
Shaedon Sharpe7.5 overall -125 (Over)/-105 (Under)

8. New Orleans Pelicans – Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky

The slide for Sharpe ends here. This pick is an easy one. No other player is expected to go top-8. The only other one in play could be Johnny Davis whose over/under is set at 9.5 and his odds are even at -115 each. So, the Pelicans get the draft’s biggest wildcard.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 8th Overall Pick

-125 (Over)/-105 (Under)Shaedon Sharpe7.5 overall
-115 (Over)/-115(Under)Johnny Davis9.5 overall

9. San Antonio Spurs – Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin

This is a battle between Johnny Davis and A.J. Griffin. The Spurs get the Wisconsin guard here for two reasons.

First, Davis over/under is set at 9.5 and oddsmakers can’t decide whether he goes over or under making 9 the perfect spot. That said, Griffin is expected to be given -165 odds to go under his over/under, which is set at 10.5. So the tiebreaker is that Davis is given -225 odds to go top-10 compared to Griffin’s -165. With Davis viewed by oddsmakers as the better top-10 prospect, he goes at 9.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 9th Overall Pick

OddsProspectImplied chance
-225Johnny Davis69.2%
-165A.J. Griffin62.3%

10. Washington Wizards – A.J. Griffin, F, Duke

This one is pretty simple. A.J. Griffin is the last player given better than a 50% chance to go top-10. His over/under is set at 10.5, and he’s heavily expected to go under at -165, or an implied 62.3% chance.

Perhaps Memphis big man Jalen Duren is in play here as well. He’s EVEN to go top-10, but his over/under is set at 10.5 and he’s given -130 odds to go over.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 10th Overall Pick

ProspectOver/Under Odds
A.J. Griffin10.5 overall -165 (Under)/+135 (Over)
Jalen Duren10.5 overall -130 (Over)/EVEN (Under)
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11. New York Knicks – Jalen Duren, C, Memphis

The Knicks are the only team outside the top-5 who has their own selection market. A.J. Griffin tops it, but he’s already off the board here. That leaves Jalen Duren as the favorite with +650 odds, or an implied 13.3% chance to be the Knicks pick.

If not Duren, the Knicks could target Jeremy Sochan or Mark Williams. Both are given +800 odds, or an implied 11.1% chance to be the pick at 11.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 11th Overall Pick

ProspectOddsImplied chance
Jalen Duren+65013.3%
Jeremy Sochan+80011.1%
Mark Williams+80011.1%

12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor

Oddsmakers have the Thunder pairing Chet Holmgren with another elite defensive big man. They don’t think it’s particularly close, as Sochan is the runaway favorite here.

Sochan’s over/under is set at 12.5 and he’s given -140 odds to go under, he’s also given +150 odds to go top-10. Meanwhile, the only other player really in contention here is Mark Williams who’s over/under is also set at 12.5, but he’s given -135 odds to go over, he’s also got +300 odds to go top-10.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 12th Overall Pick

-140 (Under)/+110 (Over)Jeremy Sochan12.5 overall
-135 (Over)/+105 (Under)Mark Williams12.5 overall

13. Charlotte Hornets – Mark Williams, C, Duke

According to oddsmakers, Mark Williams is the last player worthy of a lottery spot. So, the Hornets snap him up and fill a massive hole in their lineup.

Williams has his over/under set at 12.5, the last player on the odds market set in the top-14, and while, he’s expected to go over that puts him right in Charlotte’s lap. With no real competition, this one is easy.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 13th Overall Pick

Mark Williams12.5 overall-135 (Over)/+105 (Under)

14. Cleveland Cavaliers – Ochai Agbaji, G/F, Kansas

Cleveland lands the last player available on the market. Agbaji’s over/under is set at 15.5, and he’s given -125 odds to go under. No other player is given over/under odds, so Agbaji doesn’t have a real challenge here.

If he did, it would be Malaki Branham. The Ohio State guard is given +400 odds to go top-10, not far off from Agbaji’s +350.

2022 NBA Draft Odds: 14th Overall Pick

OddsProspectImplied chance
+350Ochai Agbaji22.2%
+400Malakai Branham20%

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.


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