NBA Draft Odds: Final Oddsmakers 2022 Mini-Mock Draft
NBA Draft Odds: Final Oddsmakers 2022 Mini-Mock Draft
Today is the day. The NBA Draft is less than eight hours away, and oddsmakers feel like they have a pretty good idea of what the lottery is going to look like. Let's dive into the NBA Draft odds for tonight.
1. Orlando Magic – Jabari Smith, F, Auburn
There was a ton of NBA Draft odds movement here in the days leading up to the draft, but in the end, they meant nothing. Jabari Smith is still the overwhelming favorite to be the pick here.
Oddsmakers give Smith -700 odds or an implied 87.5% chance to be the selection. If it’s not him, all eyes are on Paolo Banchero at +350, or an implied 22.2% chance.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder – Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga
This pick has been locked in for months. The NBA Draft odds have barely moved at all, and Chet Holmgren seems a lock to go second overall.
Holmgren is given -650 odds or an implied 86.7% chance to be the pick. If it’s not Holmgren, oddsmakers believe it’s because Jabari Smith is somehow still on the board.
3. Houston Rockets – Paolo Banchero, F, Duke
The Rockets are in a great spot. They’re just going to take whichever of the big 3 falls to them, and that’s expected to be Banchero.
Banchero is given -550 odds or an implied 84.6% chance to be the pick. If it’s not him, Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren follow.
4. Sacramento Kings – Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue
The Kings may be making this pick for someone else tonight, which makes this trickier than most. However, oddsmakers feel confident that whoever is making the pick at 4 is going to select Jaden Ivey.
The Purdue guard is given -250 odds, or an implied 71.4% chance to be the pick. If it’s not him, it’s almost certainly Keegan Murray who’s given +180 odds, or an implied 35.7% chance to be the selection
5. Detroit Pistons – Keegan Murray, F, Iowa
This is the first pick of the draft that oddsmakers are unsure about. Keegan Murray is the favorite at +110, or an implied 47.6% chance. However, Bennedict Mathurin isn’t far behind at +240, or an implied 29.4% chance.
Murray may be the presumptive pick here, but it’s far from a sure thing according to the NBA Draft odds.
6. Indiana Pacers – Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona
Oddsmakers weren’t so sure about the 5th pick, but they’re very confident about the 6th pick. Mathurin is given -115 odds or an implied 53.5% chance to be the pick.
If for some reason he’s not the pick it’s likely because Murray is on the board. The Iowa star is given +250 odds, or an implied 28.6% chance to be the pick.
7. Portland Trail Blazers – Dyson Daniels, G/F, G League Ignite
Things start getting very tight at 7. Dyson Daniels is the favorite at +115, or an implied 46.5% chance to be the pick. However, nobody would be surprised if Shaedon Sharpe, +210, ended up being the pick.
Bennedict Mathurin is also in play here if he starts to slide.
8. New Orleans Pelicans – Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky
Oddsmakers only have pick specific markets for the first seven picks. That means we’re going to piece the rest of this together with player markets. That means Shaedon Sharpe is going to be the pick at 8.
Sharpe’s over/under is set at pick 7.5, and he’s favored to go over. With no other player’s over/under set lower than 10.5, that means Sharpe gets slotted in at 8.
9. San Antonio Spurs – Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin
This is where things get very tough. There’s three players with an over/under set at 10.5 and all three have a better than 50% chance to go in the top-10.
Johnny Davis is the first one off the board, as he’s given the best odds to go top-10 at -158 or an implied 61.2% chance. However, both Jalen Duren and Ousmane Dieng should be in play here.
10. Washington Wizards – Ousmane Dieng, G/F, New Zealand Breakers
This pick comes down to two players that oddsmakers aren’t sure of. Both Ousmane Dieng and Jalen Duren are given a better than 50% chance to both go in the top-10 and outside of the top-10.
Dieng gets the edge here because his -130 odds to go under 10.5 just barely edge out Duren’s -120.
11. New York Knicks – A.J. Griffin, F, Duke
Things get screwed up heavily with the Knicks. The player markets say this should be Jalen Duren, as he’s a borderline top-10 pick. Meanwhile, A.J. Griffin’s player market says his over/under is set at 11.5 and he’s expected to go over.
However, there is a Knicks specific pick market. Griffin is the favorite to be the pick at +400, or an implied 20% chance according to the NBA Draft odds. Duren is 5th on the market at +900. Johnny Davis is in play if he’s still on the board. This is also the first mention of Malaki Branham whose over/under is set at 15.5.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jalen Duren, C, Memphis
Duren is still on the board, and oddsmakers have him as clearly the best player still on the market. He’s given -120 odds to both go inside or outside the top-10. Nobody else on the board provides that value.
If it’s not Duren, keep an eye on Jeremy Sochan who’s the only other player favored to go top-12.
13. Charlotte Hornets – Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor
With A.J. Griffin off the board, this becomes an easy pick. Jeremy Sochan is the only player left whose player market has them as a top-12 draft pick. He’s one of only two whose market’s have them as a lottery pick.
Sochan’s over/under is set at 11.5, and he’s given -148 odds to go over. If it’s not him, perhaps it’s Ochai Agbaji who’s over/under is set at 14.5 and is favored to go under.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers – Ochai Agbaji, G, Kansas
There’s only one player left who oddsmakers expect to go in the lottery. Ochai Agbaji is given a 55% chance to be a lottery pick. Nobody else on the market is favored to be a lottery pick.
That said, this isn’t a lock. Agbaji is also given -108 odds, or an implied 51.9% chance to fall out of the lottery.