March Madness Odds: Sharp Money on North Texas to Cover Against Villanova

Sharp money looks to be on the North Texas Mean Green to cover against Villanova on Sunday
Brian Good
Sun, March 21, 11:33 AM EDT

March Madness Odds: Sharp Money on North Texas to Cover Against Villanova

Usually, the total percentage of bets and the percentage of the handle for teams in a given betting market are similar. Sure, they’ll be separated by a few percentage points, but not much. On the rare occasions that there is a wide discrepancy between the two numbers, you can assume big bettors, or sharps, are to blame.

All of Sunday’s Round 2 matchups seem pretty cookie cutter, following the usual pattern seen, except Sunday night’s game between No. 5 Villanova and No. 13 North Texas.

The Wildcats come into the game favored by 5.5 points in most places following their opening-round win over 12th-seeded Winthrop, 73-63. The majority of the bets for Villanova-North Texas have come in on Nova, but well over 50% of the money is on the Mean Green to cover the spread.

Villanova vs. North Texas Betting

Villanova was a trendy upset pick by most in Round 1, and they still handled business rather easily against Winthrop. Meanwhile, North Texas pulled off a huge upset over No. 4 Purdue with just 9% of all moneyline wagers backing them against the Boilermakers.

In Round 2, Villanova is a 5.5-point favorite and, according to our friends at DraftKings, 64% of all point-spread wagers for this game are backing the Wildcats. But, when you follow the money, you get a different picture.

Only 36% of point-spread bets are backing North Texas, but a whopping 61% of the money is behind them, a difference that indicates some sharp bettors are expecting the Mean Green to keep it close with Villanova.

As far as the moneyline is concerned, Villanova seems to be in the clear with 65% of bets and 68% of the money behind them at -245. But, it looks like North Texas is the sharp pick of the day on Sunday.

Villanova vs. North Texas Odds

Team Point Spread Public Betting Handle %
Villanova -5.5 64% 39%
North Texas +5.5 36% 61%

(Numbers via DraftKings)

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