NCAA Tournament Odds: Do Oddsmakers Believe in Conference Winners?
NCAA Tournament Odds: Do Oddsmakers Believe in Conference Winners?
As of this writing, 5 teams have clinched their spot in the big dance. Murray State, Loyola Chicago, Chattanooga, Georgia State, and Longwood. None of those teams are what would normally be considered powerhouses, and oddsmakers are treating them as such.
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A strong regular season hasn’t helped Murray State. The Racers are given +15000 odds, or an implied 0.7% chance to win the NCAA tournament. That’s the best odds that any of the current conference champions have been given.
Loyola Chicago’s run to the Sweet 16 last year, hasn’t bought them any favor with oddsmakers either. The Ramblers are given +20000 odds, or just a 0.5% chance to win it all. Chattanooga isn’t far behind at +30000, or an implied 0.3% chance.
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Oddsmakers see little chance for Georgia State and Longwood. The two schools are among those with the worst odds to win the tournament. Only 3 schools have worse odds at the moment of this writing.
Mid majors just don’t win the NCAA tournament. A mid-major hasn’t won the NCAA tournament since 1990 when UNLV topped Duke. So, oddsmakers can be forgiven for being bearish on the chances of even top mid-major programs like Murray State and Loyola Chicago. Perhaps 2022 will be the year that the high majors lose their grip on power, but if that happens there are much more likely teams to lead the way than the 5 current automatic qualifiers.
NCAA Tournament Winner Odds
| Odds | School | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| +15000 | Murray State | 0.7% |
| +20000 | Loyola Chicago | 0.5% |
| +30000 | Chattanooga | 0.3% |
| +50000 | Georgia State | 0.2% |
| +50000 | Longwood | 0.2% |
A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.