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Big Ten Tournament Odds: A Penn State Upset Creates Shifts Atop the Betting Board

Oddsmakers give 3-seed Purdue a 40% chance to cut down the nets ahead of Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals play. Handicapper Henry John takes you through the Big Ten Tournament odds.
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Big Ten Tournament Odds: A Penn State Upset Creates Shifts Atop the Betting Board

College Basketball Champ Week rolls on into the weekend and the Big Ten Conference is no exception. Thus far, the 2022 Big Ten basketball tournament has had a little bit of everything. From epic comebacks to surprising upsets, the bracket has delivered as it always does. The fact that we are only two days into the tournament suggests that there is still plenty of thrilling basketball to come.

With the First and Second Rounds of the Big Ten Tournament in the books, the field of 14 has been whittled down to eight. The following looks at the updated odds to win the Big Ten conference tournament title ahead of Friday's Quarterfinal Round.

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Updated Odds to Win the Big Ten Tournament

Refer to the table below which contains the updated futures odds to win the Big Ten Tournament Championship. Outright odds reflect adjusted prices for all eight remaining teams ahead of Friday's Quarterfinals action. Prices reflect those found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Big Ten Tournament Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Michigan State+15006.3%
Penn State+40002.4%

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Big Ten Tournament Update

Thursday's Second Round action certainly had a little bit of everything! The day got off to a wild start when Indiana rallied from a double-digit deficit late to knock off Michigan in the 8-9 matchup. Given that both teams came into the Big Ten Tournament on the bubble as far as making the NCAA Tournament, the win certainly was a big one for the Hoosiers.

After Iowa handled its business in a blowout of Northwestern, Michigan State managed to escape a game effort from Maryland to also advance to the Quarterfinals. This led to Thursday's nightcap matchup between Penn State and Ohio State. Once again, we saw a lead blown as the Buckeyes could not sustain what was a nine-point halftime advantage.

With the comeback victory, the 11-seed Nittany Lions tabbed themselves as the Cinderella of this year's bracket. Of course, the Big Ten Tournament odds for Penn State to go all the way remain long relative to the rest of the remaining field. The sections below offer a closer look at the odds for each team including how they compare to the pre-tournament betting market.

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Big Ten Tournament Betting Odds

Purdue Boilermakers

Odds: +150 (Bet $100 to Win $150)

Purdue has yet to take the floor in the Big Ten Tournament after earning a double-bye through to the Quarterfinals. However, it makes sense that their odds have dropped from +225 before the tournament began to +150 considering that their path got a bit easier. With Penn State knocking off Ohio State, the Boilermakers will open up against an 11-seed playing its third game in as many days.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Odds: +330 (Bet $100 to Win $330)

Contrary to the movement on Purdue, Illinois' Big Ten Tournament odds have actually grown slightly relative to before play began. Once again, Penn State's upset is likely to blame. Suddenly, the Illini do not have what is perceived as the easiest Quarterfinal matchup despite being the top seed in the draw. That being said, Illinois did crush Indiana in the lone regular-season contest between the teams.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Odds: +380 (Bet $100 to Win $330)

After dropping 112 points on Northwestern in the Second Round yesterday, Iowa suddenly sits as the third choice on the betting board to win the Big Ten Tournament Championship. While the Hawkeyes will be the lower seed in Friday's 4-5 Quarterfinal game against Rutgers, they dwarf the Scarlet Knights in both the College Basketball NET and KenPom's overall rankings.

Wisconsin Badgers

Odds: +800 (Bet $100 to Win $800)

It's not every day that one finds the 2-seed in a conference tournament listed at 8-1 to cut down the nets. Yet, that is exactly where Wisconsin sits ahead of Friday's action. The hefty potential payout on the co-regular-season champs is solely available thanks to the uncertain health of star, Johnny Davis. While reports suggest that Wisconsin's star will be on the floor, a Quarterfinal matchup against Michigan State is certainly a stiff test with or without Davis in action.

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Michigan State Spartans

Odds: +1500 (Bet $100 to Win $1500)

Considering that Wisconsin also has hefty odds, it's clear that the betting market does not expect the eventual Big Ten Tournament Champion to come out of Friday's 2-7 Quarterfinal. Many analysts felt that Michigan State overachieved this season. With Tom Izzo at the helm, counting Sparty out entirely in March is foolish. MSU's outright odds have come down from a +2000 pre-tournament price.

Indiana Hoosiers

Odds: +1500 (Bet $100 to Win $1500)

Of the eight teams still standing in Indianapolis, Indiana's Big Ten Tournament odds have taken one of the biggest hits relative to before play began. One comeback victory over Michigan is all it took for the Hoosiers' outright odds to drop from 40-1 to the current +1500 price. Given that a win over top-seeded Illinois would virtually guarantee Indiana an NCAA Tournament berth, there will certainly be plenty of motivation to leave it all on the floor on Friday.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Odds: +1600 (Bet $100 to Win $1600)

Rutgers used an unforgettable surge during the regular season to not only boost their NCAA Tournament resume but also finish top-four in the Big Ten standings. The Scarlet Knights did pull off a two-point win over Quarterfinal opponent Iowa during the regular season. However, after oddsmakers opened SUNJ at 10-1 to win the Big Ten Tournament before play began, the market seems to be going against Rutgers.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Odds: +4000 (Bet $100 to Win $4000)

With Big Ten Tournament odds of 40-1, Cinderella Penn State is clearly the longshot on the betting board. To think that bettors could have played the Nittany Lions at +25000 before the tournament began shows just how far their odds have fallen. In order to cash an outright tournament futures ticket, Penn State would need to win five games in five days. The story is great, but getting past Purdue on Friday would be a monumental upset on its own.

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Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.


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