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Purdue March Madness Odds: Is This Matt Painter's First Final Four Team?

The Purdue Boilermakers were assigned the No. 3 seed in the East Region. Here is a breakdown of Purdue's odds from the opening round to the championship.
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Purdue March Madness Odds: Is This Matt Painter's First Final Four Team?

The Purdue Boilermakers were widely thought of as the most talented team in the Big Ten, so it must be disappointing that they failed to win a regular-season conference championship or conference tournament championship. The Boilermakers at one point were ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, but an inconsistent defense and intense competition in their conference led to seven losses along the way. Below is Purdue’s various odds at different stages of March Madness.

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First Round Game: Purdue March Madness Odds

Spread: Purdue -16 (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100) Moneyline: (-1750) vs. No. 14 Yale

The Ivy League champion is often thought of as a serious upset candidate in March, but Purdue’s -16 point spread suggests that oddsmakers believe this is a bad matchup for the Bulldogs. For what it is worth, Purdue has been a terrible ATS team of late, failing to cover any of its last ten games. Yale’s tallest starter is 6’7”, so they will have difficulty matching up with Purdue’s 7’4” Zach Edey and 6’10” Trevion Williams. Thus, the Bulldogs will likely have to mix in a lot of zone, which is dangerous against a Purdue team that makes 39.1% of its 3-point shots (fourth-best in the country). From a moneyline perspective, the Boilermakers should be safe, considering Yale played four NCAA Tournament teams this year and lost all four by a combined 93 points.  

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Final Four 

Purdue (+450) (Bet $100 to Win $450)

Purdue head coach Matt Painter has guided Purdue to the NCAA Tournament 12 times and has four Sweet 16 and one Elite Eight appearance. So is this the Boilermakers squad that will become his first-ever Final Four team? Purdue has all the pieces you would want. They have one of the country’s most electrifying point guards (Jaden Ivey) who can beat any defender or kick out to knockdown shooters. But what sets Purdue apart is its elite size, as not many teams can match up with Edey and Williams. Purdue’s Round of 32 opponent will be tricky, as Texas and Virginia Tech are capable of upsets. And projecting out further, the Boilermakers would still potentially have to get through Kentucky and Baylor before cashing in their March Madness Final Four odds of +450.

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National Championship

Purdue (+2000) (Bet $100 to Win $2000)

While Purdue has all the necessary components of a national championship team, its biggest question at all stages of this tournament will be if they can play consistent enough defense. The Boilermakers rank 100th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric and are not a harassing defensive team, forcing the 13th-fewest percentage of turnovers in the country. Thus, Purdue would have to have an exceptional tournament offensively to win six games, but it is unlikely they will be able to hold up defensively for that period of time.

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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