UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore Prediction
Preliminary Card - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 4:45 p.m. EST.
- All 9 of Ramiz Brahimaj’s wins have come inside the distance.
- Micheal Gillmore has been finished in all of his defeats, 5 times as a pro (1 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions), and 2 times as an amateur (1 KO/TKO, 1 Submission) (per Tapology.com).
I’m not one to give myself a pat on the back often, but I have to say, I’ve had good reads on all of Ramiz Brahimaj’s UFC fights to this point. I started off by betting Max Griffin to beat him in his UFC debut, which cashed at -138. Then, following that, I cashed at +200 on Brahimaj to rebound with a stoppage victory over Sasha Palatnikov. And, in his most recent fight, I predicted, but didn’t bet, Court McGee to beat him via decision as a slight ‘dog.
He’s got the feel of a guy that can run through opponents with grappling deficiencies and will be stifled by guys who are competent and well-rounded. He’s still somewhat young in his fighting career with only 13 pro MMA bouts to his name (aged 29), but unless we see any leaps in his game soon, this is more or less what we can expect from him moving forward.
Thankfully for Brahimaj, however, he won’t need to have made any drastic improvements since last fight against Court McGee, just over a month ago, as he is facing Michael Gillmore, a fighter with evident holes in his grappling game.
Gillmore is a tough and hardnosed striker, but it’s clear to see that he’s a fish out of water on the mat. His takedown defense is poor, his ground game leaves a lot to be desired, and he’s shown that he is vulnerable to getting stopped on the mat.
I do have a couple of minor concerns with Brahimaj, primarily that he’s stepping in on a little over a week’s notice, but also that he got dropped by Court McGee (which isn’t a great look in 2022), and that he’s shown questionable fight IQ at times in the UFC. That said, I simply refuse to believe that he won’t just pursue the easiest path to victory, to take Gillmore down and sub’ him in rapid fashion. It’s another big play from me early in the year, but this line appears seriously out of whack to me, and I’m happy to take it.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore Pick
- Bet of the Card: (5u) Ramiz Brahimaj to Win Inside the Distance @ -110 (to Return 9.545 Units)
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Prediction
Main Event - Catchweight (160lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.
- Only 8 of Islam Makhachev’s 21 wins have coming in the first 1.5 rounds, per Tapology.com).
- 11 of Bobby Green’s last 12 fights have gone to a 3-round decision, and he hasn’t lost via submission since 2009 (per Sherdog.com).
Islam Makhachev is the rightful favorite in this fight, although I will contend that his roughly -800 price tag feels a touch too wide, given the gulf in class between these fighters on the feet. That said, Green doesn’t offer much of a one-shot knockout threat, meaning that he’ll have to out-work Mak’ on the feet for 25-minutes or until he can force a finish due to volume striking.
Both of which are possible but given Mak’ is a fairly competent and risk-averse range striker, he should be able to nullify much of Green’s offense, until he sees his opportunity to engage Green up close, looking to force a clinch and invariably take the fight down to the mat.
Bobby Green offers a 72% takedown defense (per UFCStats.com), and although that isn’t terrible, it also isn’t great, which is a concern for him given that Mak’ will be the best all-round grappler he’s ever faced. Once on the mat, Green will be out of his element. In the past he has shown that he’s capable of surviving off his back and working up to his feet, but in this spot, he might well be a little overwhelmed with the task he has ahead of him, given the grappling pedigree of Makhachev.
In summary, this is quite a binary matchup, with Green being the fighter likely to edge minutes on the feet, and Mak’ with the ability to dominate minutes on the ground. It’s these styles of fights that often produce finishes, which makes under bets rather appealing. But, with the over/under on this fight set at 1.5 rounds, it actually looks to be a great spot for a bet on the over, as there appears to be some recency bias baked into this line due to Mak’ scoring an early submission in his last fight against Dan Hooker.
Neither fighter yields much of a knockout threat striking, and on the mat, Mak’ is the only one who really carriers a threat of a stoppage, and even with his impressive win over Hooker, historically he hasn’t been some ruthless finisher in the early goings, at least not those of the level and experience of Green. So, for these reasons, I strongly favor this fight to make It through the first round and a half, with Mak’ likely securing a submission later in the fight or him getting a decisive decision win.
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Pick
- (2.5u) Over 1.5 Rounds @ -162 (to Return 4.038 Units)
- (0.5u) Fight Goes the Distance @ +260 (to Return 1.8 Units)
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira Prediction
Main Card - (W) Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:15 p.m. EST.
- 6 of Ji Yeon Kim’s 7 UFC fights have gone to decision.
- Ji Yeon Kim has never been stopped in her career, and Priscila Cachoeira has only ever been finished twice via submission (one of which was against Valentina Shevchenko) (per Tapology.com).
It’s up for debate whether this fight should be on the main card of a UFC event, but regardless, it should be a fun scrap, which are few and far between at women’s flyweight.
Both fighters love to throw hands, with Cachoeira being the fighter that throws the harder and more winging shots, and Kim as the one that looks to maintain range, so to make good use of her obscenely long reach (72” vs. 65”) to land lancing blows at a high volume.
Neither woman has shown a desire to grapple in the UFC, with a combined 0 takedowns landed between them, so even though they both have grappling deficiencies, I wouldn’t expect either fighter to look to capitalize on this fact.
All in all, look for these two to meet in the middle and trade. Kim, although the more calculated of the two, is still not a defensively sound striker, and Cachoeira couldn’t be further from that, but her toughness and grittiness makes her virtually immune to the shots of her opponent. Similarly to my thinking with the main event, it’s these kinds of matchups that often would look to produce finishes, but both these women are durable and have decent cardio, so I actually lean heavily towards this going the full 15-minutes.
Cachoeira landing a huge bomb, or ending up trapped in a grounded position and receiving ground and pound, are my biggest concerns, but she’s only dusted fighters who have a history of getting KO/TKO’ed, and she’s only been held down by fighters with much superior wrestlers to Kim, so the over feels fairly safe.
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira Pick
- (2u) Fight Goes the Distance @ -162 (to Return 3.231 Units)
UFC Fight Night
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green / UFC on ESPN+ 60 / UFC Vegas 49 / #UFCVegas49
- Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Date: Saturday, February 26th, 2022
- Start Time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims: 4 p.m. EST.
- Where To Watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelim Card on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green Full Fight Card Predictions:
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green Main Event Prediction:
Catchweight (160lbs): Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green – Makhachev via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green Main Card Predictions:
Middleweight (185lbs): Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman – Cirkunov via Submission
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira – Kim via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez – Tsarukyan via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Gregory Rodrigues vs. Armen Petrosyan – Petrosyan via KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green Prelim Card Predictions:
Lightweight (155lbs): Zhu Rong vs. Ignacio Bahamondes – Bahamondes via Decision
(W) Featherweight (145lbs): Josiane Nunes vs. Ramona Pascual – Nunes via KO/TKO
Lightweight (155lbs): Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam – Ziam via Decision
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Jinh Yu Frey vs. Hannah Goldy – Frey via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez – Martinez via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore – Brahimaj via Submission
Flyweight (125lbs): Victor Altamirano vs. Carlos Hernandez – Altamirano via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.